Seafood Turnover Deep-Dive

Seafood in Florida shows 4.9% closure pressure across 1,514 active licenses.

ROUTINE closure pressure -- a normal level of churn. 4.9%
1,514 active licenses tracked.
CHURNING ownership turnover -- heavy ownership turnover (possible hidden failure). 17.5%
Closure signal clusters in Duval, Flagler, St. Johns.
Failure here is largely HIDDEN -- low closures but heavy ownership turnover (a silent supertransition).

Failure pressure HIGH Confirmed closure rate 4.9% — ROUTINE Ownership turnover 17.5% — CHURNING

⚠ ownership turnover may be hiding failure

A low closure rate alone does not mean a cuisine is healthy: ownership can quietly turn over (a 'silent supertransition'), so a storefront keeps serving under new owners while the original business has effectively failed.

Ownership-turnover rate = this cuisine's active addresses that appear in the supertransition timeline or the DBPR Approve-Change-Owner feed within ~5y, over its active address count. It is a defensible LOWER BOUND -- the owner-change feed is a partial extract.

Active1,514

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46)74

Closure rate4.9%

Dominant countiesDuval, Flagler, St. Johns

Counts here are DBPR licenses in delinquent/inactive status (Primary Status Code 45 or 46) -- a public-record regulatory state, not a confirmed business closure. This delinquent population is much larger than the metro Closures dimension's confirmed-closed count, which additionally requires Google/news/field corroboration. A delinquent license is not by itself proof the business has shut.

Ownership Turnover Hidden failure

A storefront can fail — the business dies — while the license and address keep operating under a new owner. That “silent supertransition” hides failure behind a low closure rate, so turnover is tracked here as a second, distinct failure axis alongside confirmed closures.

Ownership turnover CHURNING 17.5% of 1497 active addresses (262 flagged) — heavy ownership turnover (possible hidden failure)

⚠ Confirmed closures are just 4.9%, but ownership is turning over at 17.5% — failure here is largely hidden as ownership flips, not closures.

Top turnover storefronts

Addresses where this cuisine operates today and the license/address has cycled owners or concepts within ~5 years.

							Open
4116 N HIMES AVE	Tampa	Hillsborough	52	49	Concept failure	YBOR PRESS 208	›
4700 W SAND LAKE RD	Orlando	Orange	27	26	Concept failure	UC LEGACY CLUB
1365 N MONORAIL WAY	Bay Lake	Orange	21	20	Concept failure	TONY'S TOWN SQUARE RESTAURANT
1510 N AVE OF THE STARS	Lake Buena Vista	Orange	17	16	Concept failure	REGAL EAGLE RESTAURANT
401 BISCAYNE BLVD STE S101	Miami	Dade	17	16	Concept failure	HOLY BUREK
7007 SEA WORLD DR	Orlando	Orange	15	14	Concept failure	LAKESIDE GRILL
9101 INTERNATIONAL DR STE 2210	Orlando	Orange	14	13	Concept failure	CAPITAL GRILLE #8025
5500 SUNSEEKER WAY	Port Charlotte	Charlotte	12	11	Concept failure	CHARTISAN
5108 15 ST E	Bradenton	Manatee	12	11	Concept failure	GOLOSINAS TITI II
200 E FLAGLER ST UNIT 108	Miami	Dade	12	11	Concept failure	J. WONG CEVICHE BAR / CHICKN' BRAS PERUVIAN KITCHEN
2083 N POWERLINE RD	Pompano Beach	Broward	12	11	Concept failure	PARGA PARTY RENTALS LLC
50 W ORANGE AVE UNIT 1	Eustis	Lake	10	9	Concept failure	SATISFY THAT CRAVING	›
615 CHANNELSIDE DR UNIT 7	Tampa	Hillsborough	10	9	Concept failure	LOST PEARL
4414 SW COLLEGE RD STE 420	Ocala	Marion	10	9	Concept failure	CRAZY CUCUMBER MARKET STREET
8000 W BROWARD BLVD STE 5005	Plantation	Broward	9	8	Concept failure	BUNNBOH CHURROS

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Charts

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46) by quarter


2015 Q4	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2016 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2016 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2016 Q3	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2016 Q4	1.0	1.7209302325581395
2017 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2017 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2017 Q3	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2017 Q4	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2018 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2018 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2018 Q3	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2018 Q4	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2019 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2019 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2019 Q3	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2019 Q4	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2020 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2020 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2020 Q3	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2020 Q4	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2021 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2021 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2021 Q3	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2021 Q4	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2022 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2022 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2022 Q3	1.0	1.7209302325581395
2022 Q4	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2023 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2023 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2023 Q3	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2023 Q4	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2024 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2024 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2024 Q3	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2024 Q4	1.0	1.7209302325581395
2025 Q1	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2025 Q2	0.0	1.7209302325581395
2025 Q3	6.0	1.7209302325581395
2025 Q4	11.0	1.7209302325581395
2026 Q1	42.0	1.7209302325581395
2026 Q2	12.0	1.7209302325581395
2026 Q3	0.0	1.7209302325581395

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure-rate breakdown


Duval	92	23	25.0%	0.23
Flagler	10	2	20.0%	0.17
St. Johns	30	4	13.3%	0.15
Marion	16	2	12.5%	0.05
Polk	32	3	9.4%	0.04
Alachua	13	1	7.7%	0.04
St. Lucie	14	1	7.1%	0.03
Osceola	17	1	5.9%	0.03
Seminole	17	1	5.9%	0.02
Brevard	62	3	4.8%	0.05
Orange	85	4	4.7%	0.03
Broward	147	6	4.1%	0.03
Pinellas	109	4	3.7%	0.04
Hillsborough	60	2	3.3%	0.01
Palm Beach	101	2	2.0%	0.01
Dade	152	3	2.0%	0.01
Volusia	51	1	2.0%	0.02
Sarasota	59	1	1.7%	0.02
Lee	86	1	1.2%	0.01
Pasco	15	0	0.0%	0.00
Collier	60	0	0.0%	0.00
Lake	19	0	0.0%	0.00
Charlotte	15	0	0.0%	0.00
Martin	25	0	0.0%	0.00
Hernando	12	0	0.0%	0.00
Nassau	10	0	0.0%	0.00
Citrus	13	0	0.0%	0.00
Manatee	51	0	0.0%	0.00
Monroe	89	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Top same-address churn locations

						Open
860 NE 79 ST STE B	Miami	Dade	323	564	57.3%	›
1850 EMERSON ST	Jacksonville	Duval	301	701	42.9%	›
809 N MAGNOLIA AVE	Ocala	Marion	251	611	41.1%	›
2640 KUNZE AVE	Orlando	Orange	237	512	46.3%	›
11770 A METRO PKWY	Fort Myers	Lee	235	506	46.4%	›
5960 RICHARD ST	Jacksonville	Duval	200	752	26.6%	›
866 NE 79 ST	Miami	Dade	198	376	52.7%	›
5224 S DALE MABRY HWY	Tampa	Hillsborough	193	384	50.3%	›
4116 N HIMES AVE	Tampa	Hillsborough	187	761	24.6%	›
5007 N HIATUS RD	Sunrise	Broward	174	447	38.9%	›
929 W MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	158	295	53.6%	›
1 TROPICANA DR	St. Petersburg	Pinellas	150	379	39.6%	›
1 TIAA BANK FIELD DR	Jacksonville	Duval	129	353	36.5%	›
13920 SW 139 CT	Miami	Dade	108	366	29.5%	›
411 S FEDERAL HWY	Boynton Beach	Palm Beach	107	260	41.2%	›
5811 W IRLO BRONSON MEMORIAL HWY	Kissimmee	Osceola	103	332	31.0%	›
6657 49 ST N	Pinellas Park	Pinellas	103	179	57.5%	›
1400 COLONIAL BLVD STE 35	Fort Myers	Lee	102	241	42.3%	›
4880 DISTRIBUTION CT	Orlando	Orange	100	261	38.3%	›
1206 W ROBINSON ST	Orlando	Orange	95	250	38.0%	›

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure rates


Duval	92	23	25.0%	0.23
Flagler	10	2	20.0%	0.17
St. Johns	30	4	13.3%	0.15
Marion	16	2	12.5%	0.05
Polk	32	3	9.4%	0.04
Alachua	13	1	7.7%	0.04
St. Lucie	14	1	7.1%	0.03
Osceola	17	1	5.9%	0.03
Seminole	17	1	5.9%	0.02
Brevard	62	3	4.8%	0.05
Orange	85	4	4.7%	0.03
Broward	147	6	4.1%	0.03
Pinellas	109	4	3.7%	0.04
Hillsborough	60	2	3.3%	0.01
Palm Beach	101	2	2.0%	0.01
Dade	152	3	2.0%	0.01
Volusia	51	1	2.0%	0.02
Sarasota	59	1	1.7%	0.02
Lee	86	1	1.2%	0.01
Pasco	15	0	0.0%	0.00
Collier	60	0	0.0%	0.00
Lake	19	0	0.0%	0.00
Charlotte	15	0	0.0%	0.00
Martin	25	0	0.0%	0.00
Hernando	12	0	0.0%	0.00
Nassau	10	0	0.0%	0.00
Citrus	13	0	0.0%	0.00
Manatee	51	0	0.0%	0.00
Monroe	89	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Data sources: Business turnover trends. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.