Inspection Risk Level Weekly Brief

By RiskyEats / FRI Editorial Desk

Inspections this week236

Emergency-order recommendations3

Current-week anomalies12

High or critical band0

Top anomaly score72 of 100

DBPR inspectors logged 236 restaurant inspections from June 30 to July 7, 2026. Thirty is not an abstraction here: 3 inspections ended with an emergency-order recommendation, while 793 closure-status license records landed inside the same seven-day window. That split is the story of this week. The paper trail is hotter in the inspection file than in the inactive-license ledger.

The named edge of the file runs through CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL #2644 in Jacksonville, PAUL'S BEACH BAR & GRILL in Islamorada, and TRES AMIGOS TAQUERIA in Fort Myers. These are not the only restaurants with problems, but they are the five most anomalous publishable rows when inspection severity, recent history, peer-cuisine context, emergency-order history, and license status are stacked together.

Source dataset: output/inspections.parquet and output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet.

The Big Five

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL #2644 in Jacksonville - Jacksonville - Mexican

Inspection severity at CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL #2644 in Jacksonville is running 5.2x this restaurant's own prior high-priority baseline. The most recent inspection on 2026-07-01 logged 4 high-priority violations after a prior average of 0.8; DBPR disposition reads Warning Issued.

Against the Jacksonville Mexican cohort, that lands around the 90th percentile, while the cohort median sits at 1.0 high-priority violations per inspection. The model's plain-English driver is severity spike vs self, so the forward look is a callback-and-license watch rather than a verdict.

PAUL'S BEACH BAR & GRILL in Islamorada - Islamorada - Bar

Inspection severity at PAUL'S BEACH BAR & GRILL in Islamorada is running 0.0x this restaurant's own prior high-priority baseline. The most recent inspection on 2026-07-01 logged 0 high-priority violations after a prior average of 0.3; DBPR disposition reads Inspection Completed - No Further Action.

Against the Islamorada Bar cohort, that lands around the 42th percentile, while the cohort median sits at 1.0 high-priority violations per inspection. The model's plain-English driver is Foursquare flagged permanently closed; Google Places reports permanently closed, so the forward look is a callback-and-license watch rather than a verdict.

TRES AMIGOS TAQUERIA in Fort Myers - Fort Myers - Mexican

Inspection severity at TRES AMIGOS TAQUERIA in Fort Myers is running 2.0x this restaurant's own prior high-priority baseline. The most recent inspection on 2026-07-01 logged 3 high-priority violations after a prior average of 1.5; DBPR disposition reads Inspection Completed - No Further Action.

Against the Fort Myers Mexican cohort, that lands around the 93th percentile, while the cohort median sits at 1.0 high-priority violations per inspection. The model's plain-English driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, so the forward look is a callback-and-license watch rather than a verdict.

DIM SUM HOUSE in Clermont - Clermont - Chinese

Inspection severity at DIM SUM HOUSE in Clermont is running 0.8x this restaurant's own prior high-priority baseline. The most recent inspection on 2026-07-01 logged 2 high-priority violations after a prior average of 2.4; DBPR disposition reads Call Back - Admin. complaint recommended.

Against the Clermont Chinese cohort, that lands around the 68th percentile, while the cohort median sits at 2.0 high-priority violations per inspection. The model's plain-English driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, so the forward look is a callback-and-license watch rather than a verdict.

CRAFT KAFE in St. Petersburg - St. Petersburg - Cafe

Inspection severity at CRAFT KAFE in St. Petersburg is running 4.4x this restaurant's own prior high-priority baseline. The most recent inspection on 2026-07-01 logged 5 high-priority violations after a prior average of 1.1; DBPR disposition reads Warning Issued.

Against the St. Petersburg Cafe cohort, that lands around the 96th percentile, while the cohort median sits at 1.0 high-priority violations per inspection. The model's plain-English driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, so the forward look is a callback-and-license watch rather than a verdict.

Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet joined to output/master_business.parquet and output/inspections.parquet.

Current-week anomaly cases

						Open
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL #2644 in Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Mexican	severity spike vs self	4 high-priority violations, 5.2x this license's prior average	90th percentile; median 1.0 high-priority violations	›
PAUL'S BEACH BAR & GRILL in Islamorada	Islamorada	Bar	Foursquare flagged permanently closed; Google Places reports permanently closed	0 high-priority violations, 0.0x this license's prior average	42th percentile; median 1.0 high-priority violations	›
TRES AMIGOS TAQUERIA in Fort Myers	Fort Myers	Mexican	inspection severity well above peer cuisines	3 high-priority violations, 2.0x this license's prior average	93th percentile; median 1.0 high-priority violations	›
DIM SUM HOUSE in Clermont	Clermont	Chinese	inspection severity well above peer cuisines	2 high-priority violations, 0.8x this license's prior average	68th percentile; median 2.0 high-priority violations	›
CRAFT KAFE in St. Petersburg	St. Petersburg	Cafe	inspection severity well above peer cuisines	5 high-priority violations, 4.4x this license's prior average	96th percentile; median 1.0 high-priority violations	›

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet, current-week last inspection dates.

The Trend Section

This week produced 236 inspections versus a trailing-four-week average of 821.8 per week. Emergency-order recommendations were down 83.3%, at 3 this week against 18.0 per week in the comparison window. High-priority violations ran down 25.6% on a per-inspection basis: 0.56 this week versus 0.75 across the trailing four weeks.

The closure-status ledger was quieter: 793 current-week closure-status updates versus 18.5 per week in the prior four-week window. That does not make the week clean. It means the immediate signal is inspections, callbacks, and emergency-order recommendations before the license-status file catches up.

Source dataset: output/inspections.parquet and output/licenses_hr.parquet.

The Cohort Movers

Mexican: 3 current-week anomaly rows, versus a trailing-four-week average of 1.2. That is a move of +1.8 rows, large enough to make the cuisine visible in a one-week read.

Cafe: 2 current-week anomaly rows, versus a trailing-four-week average of 0.8. That is a move of +1.2 rows, large enough to make the cuisine visible in a one-week read.

Korean: 1 current-week anomaly rows, versus a trailing-four-week average of 0.0. That is a move of +1.0 rows, large enough to make the cuisine visible in a one-week read.

Sports Bar: 1 current-week anomaly rows, versus a trailing-four-week average of 0.2. That is a move of +0.8 rows, large enough to make the cuisine visible in a one-week read.

Lake County: 1 current-week anomaly rows, versus 0.2 per week across the prior four weeks. County moves matter because inspection staffing, tourist volume, and license density are local before they are statewide.

Pinellas County: 2 current-week anomaly rows, versus 1.2 per week across the prior four weeks. County moves matter because inspection staffing, tourist volume, and license density are local before they are statewide.

Monroe County: 1 current-week anomaly rows, versus 0.5 per week across the prior four weeks. County moves matter because inspection staffing, tourist volume, and license density are local before they are statewide.

Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet grouped by cuisine and county.

What to Watch Next Week

The 90-day closure model is not a next-Monday prophecy. It is a lead sheet. The names below sit at the top of the calibrated file, and the structural reasons are printed in plain language so a reader can audit the call before reacting to it.

69.7%

DUNKIN DONUTS in North Palm Beach

North Palm Beach · Donuts · days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Donuts; County Palm Beach

62.4%

PANDA EXPRESS APOLLO BEACH in Apollo Beach

Apollo Beach · Fast Food · days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Fast Food; County Hillsborough

60.6%

RAISING CANE'S RESTAURANT #1342 in Kissimmee

Kissimmee · Fast Food · days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Fast Food; County Osceola

59.3%

JERSEY MIKE'S SUB SHOP in Wesley Chapel

Wesley Chapel · Sandwiches · days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Sandwiches; County Pasco

55.1%

HAAGEN DAZS OCALA in Ocala

Ocala · Ice Cream · days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; County Marion; Cuisine Ice Cream

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet.

Methodology

Methodology: IRL combines DBPR inspection history, high-priority violation counts, emergency-order dispositions, ORSM anomaly bands, and license context. Ratios compare the latest inspection to that restaurant's prior high-priority baseline; cohort percentiles compare the same count to city, county, or statewide cuisine peers when the local sample is too small.

Data sources: License records. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.