Desserts Turnover Deep-Dive

Desserts in Florida shows 8.0% closure pressure across 2,002 active licenses.

HEAVY closure pressure -- closures running above normal. 8.0%
2,002 active licenses tracked.
CHURNING ownership turnover -- heavy ownership turnover (possible hidden failure). 22.5%
Closure signal clusters in Duval, Clay, Alachua.

Failure pressure HIGH Confirmed closure rate 8.0% — HEAVY Ownership turnover 22.5% — CHURNING

A low closure rate alone does not mean a cuisine is healthy: ownership can quietly turn over (a 'silent supertransition'), so a storefront keeps serving under new owners while the original business has effectively failed.

Ownership-turnover rate = this cuisine's active addresses that appear in the supertransition timeline or the DBPR Approve-Change-Owner feed within ~5y, over its active address count. It is a defensible LOWER BOUND -- the owner-change feed is a partial extract.

Active2,002

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46)160

Closure rate8.0%

Dominant countiesDuval, Clay, Alachua

Counts here are DBPR licenses in delinquent/inactive status (Primary Status Code 45 or 46) -- a public-record regulatory state, not a confirmed business closure. This delinquent population is much larger than the metro Closures dimension's confirmed-closed count, which additionally requires Google/news/field corroboration. A delinquent license is not by itself proof the business has shut.

Ownership Turnover

A storefront can fail — the business dies — while the license and address keep operating under a new owner. That “silent supertransition” hides failure behind a low closure rate, so turnover is tracked here as a second, distinct failure axis alongside confirmed closures.

Ownership turnover CHURNING 22.5% of 1964 active addresses (442 flagged) — heavy ownership turnover (possible hidden failure)

Top turnover storefronts

Addresses where this cuisine operates today and the license/address has cycled owners or concepts within ~5 years.

							Open
1 TROPICANA DR	St. Petersburg	Pinellas	46	45	Concept failure	PACIFIC COUNTER	›
1 TIAA BANK FIELD DR	Jacksonville	Duval	37	34	Concept failure	CS 405/SMOKEY QUE'S	›
9800 INTERNATIONAL DR	Orlando	Orange	38	33	Concept failure	CREATE A BOWL 2	›
1020 W MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	34	33	Concept failure	FRESH & FAVORED	›
1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PLAZA	Orlando	Orange	24	21	Concept failure	PIZZA PREDATORIA MINI GRILL (EMPLOYEE)
1365 N MONORAIL WAY	Bay Lake	Orange	21	20	Concept failure	SLEEPY HOLLOW
1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PL	Orlando	Orange	18	17	Concept failure	FINNEGAN'S BAR & GRILL
401 BISCAYNE BLVD STE S101	Miami	Dade	17	16	Concept failure	HOLY BUREK
1020 W. MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	17	16	Concept failure	MARTINIS BAKERY	›
1501 NW 3 ST	Miami	Dade	16	15	Concept failure	01.15.02 THE CLUB	›
1 LEGOLAND WAY	Winter Haven	Polk	16	15	Concept failure	ARAMARK AT LEGOLAND SHIPWRECK RESTAURANT	›
8001 S ORANGE BLOSSOM TRL UNIT KI35	Orlando	Orange	16	15	Concept failure	COSECHAS
5500 SUNSEEKER WAY	Port Charlotte	Charlotte	12	11	Concept failure	CHARTISAN
200 E FLAGLER ST UNIT 108	Miami	Dade	12	11	Concept failure	J. WONG CEVICHE BAR / CHICKN' BRAS PERUVIAN KITCHEN
5108 15 ST E	Bradenton	Manatee	12	11	Concept failure	LA BELLE FOURCHETTE

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Charts

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46) by quarter


2015 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2016 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2016 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2016 Q3	0.0	3.697674418604651
2016 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2017 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2017 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2017 Q3	0.0	3.697674418604651
2017 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2018 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2018 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2018 Q3	0.0	3.697674418604651
2018 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2019 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2019 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2019 Q3	0.0	3.697674418604651
2019 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2020 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2020 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2020 Q3	0.0	3.697674418604651
2020 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2021 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2021 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2021 Q3	0.0	3.697674418604651
2021 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2022 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2022 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2022 Q3	0.0	3.697674418604651
2022 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2023 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2023 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2023 Q3	0.0	3.697674418604651
2023 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2024 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2024 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2024 Q3	0.0	3.697674418604651
2024 Q4	0.0	3.697674418604651
2025 Q1	0.0	3.697674418604651
2025 Q2	0.0	3.697674418604651
2025 Q3	64.0	3.697674418604651
2025 Q4	51.0	3.697674418604651
2026 Q1	18.0	3.697674418604651
2026 Q2	26.0	3.697674418604651
2026 Q3	1.0	3.697674418604651

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure-rate breakdown


Duval	66	24	36.4%	0.24
Clay	13	4	30.8%	0.18
Alachua	17	5	29.4%	0.18
St. Johns	47	9	19.1%	0.33
Sarasota	55	9	16.4%	0.21
Polk	52	8	15.4%	0.11
Collier	39	5	12.8%	0.13
Volusia	50	6	12.0%	0.11
Martin	21	2	9.5%	0.13
Osceola	33	3	9.1%	0.08
Indian River	11	1	9.1%	0.06
Pasco	57	5	8.8%	0.09
Palm Beach	136	11	8.1%	0.07
Orange	165	12	7.3%	0.08
Lake	31	2	6.5%	0.05
Marion	34	2	5.9%	0.05
Monroe	17	1	5.9%	0.12
Broward	214	12	5.6%	0.06
Pinellas	126	7	5.6%	0.07
Seminole	43	2	4.7%	0.04
Dade	264	12	4.5%	0.04
Lee	92	4	4.3%	0.05
Hillsborough	126	5	4.0%	0.03
St. Lucie	40	1	2.5%	0.03
Manatee	43	1	2.3%	0.03
Highlands	16	0	0.0%	0.00
Sumter	14	0	0.0%	0.00
Charlotte	23	0	0.0%	0.00
Hernando	21	0	0.0%	0.00
Brevard	74	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Top same-address churn locations

						Open
860 NE 79 ST STE B	Miami	Dade	323	564	57.3%	›
1850 EMERSON ST	Jacksonville	Duval	301	701	42.9%	›
809 N MAGNOLIA AVE	Ocala	Marion	251	611	41.1%	›
2640 KUNZE AVE	Orlando	Orange	237	512	46.3%	›
11770 A METRO PKWY	Fort Myers	Lee	235	506	46.4%	›
5960 RICHARD ST	Jacksonville	Duval	200	752	26.6%	›
866 NE 79 ST	Miami	Dade	198	376	52.7%	›
5224 S DALE MABRY HWY	Tampa	Hillsborough	193	384	50.3%	›
4116 N HIMES AVE	Tampa	Hillsborough	187	761	24.6%	›
5007 N HIATUS RD	Sunrise	Broward	174	447	38.9%	›
929 W MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	158	295	53.6%	›
1 TROPICANA DR	St. Petersburg	Pinellas	150	379	39.6%	›
1 TIAA BANK FIELD DR	Jacksonville	Duval	129	353	36.5%	›
13920 SW 139 CT	Miami	Dade	108	366	29.5%	›
411 S FEDERAL HWY	Boynton Beach	Palm Beach	107	260	41.2%	›
5811 W IRLO BRONSON MEMORIAL HWY	Kissimmee	Osceola	103	332	31.0%	›
6657 49 ST N	Pinellas Park	Pinellas	103	179	57.5%	›
1400 COLONIAL BLVD STE 35	Fort Myers	Lee	102	241	42.3%	›
4880 DISTRIBUTION CT	Orlando	Orange	100	261	38.3%	›
1206 W ROBINSON ST	Orlando	Orange	95	250	38.0%	›

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure rates


Duval	66	24	36.4%	0.24
Clay	13	4	30.8%	0.18
Alachua	17	5	29.4%	0.18
St. Johns	47	9	19.1%	0.33
Sarasota	55	9	16.4%	0.21
Polk	52	8	15.4%	0.11
Collier	39	5	12.8%	0.13
Volusia	50	6	12.0%	0.11
Martin	21	2	9.5%	0.13
Osceola	33	3	9.1%	0.08
Indian River	11	1	9.1%	0.06
Pasco	57	5	8.8%	0.09
Palm Beach	136	11	8.1%	0.07
Orange	165	12	7.3%	0.08
Lake	31	2	6.5%	0.05
Marion	34	2	5.9%	0.05
Monroe	17	1	5.9%	0.12
Broward	214	12	5.6%	0.06
Pinellas	126	7	5.6%	0.07
Seminole	43	2	4.7%	0.04
Dade	264	12	4.5%	0.04
Lee	92	4	4.3%	0.05
Hillsborough	126	5	4.0%	0.03
St. Lucie	40	1	2.5%	0.03
Manatee	43	1	2.3%	0.03
Highlands	16	0	0.0%	0.00
Sumter	14	0	0.0%	0.00
Charlotte	23	0	0.0%	0.00
Hernando	21	0	0.0%	0.00
Brevard	74	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Data sources: Business turnover trends. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.