Cafe Turnover Deep-Dive - RiskyEats FRI

Cafe in Florida shows 3.8% closure pressure across 2,479 active licenses.

ROUTINE closure pressure -- a normal level of churn. 3.8%
2,479 active licenses tracked.
CHURNING ownership turnover -- heavy ownership turnover (possible hidden failure). 19.9%
Closure signal clusters in St. Johns, Alachua, Clay.
Failure here is largely HIDDEN -- low closures but heavy ownership turnover (a silent supertransition).

Failure pressure HIGH Confirmed closure rate 3.8% — ROUTINE Ownership turnover 19.9% — CHURNING

⚠ ownership turnover may be hiding failure

A low closure rate alone does not mean a cuisine is healthy: ownership can quietly turn over (a 'silent supertransition'), so a storefront keeps serving under new owners while the original business has effectively failed.

Ownership-turnover rate = this cuisine's active addresses that appear in the supertransition timeline or the DBPR Approve-Change-Owner feed within ~5y, over its active address count. It is a defensible LOWER BOUND -- the owner-change feed is a partial extract.

Active2,479

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46)93

Closure rate3.8%

Dominant countiesSt. Johns, Alachua, Clay

Counts here are DBPR licenses in delinquent/inactive status (Primary Status Code 45 or 46) -- a public-record regulatory state, not a confirmed business closure. This delinquent population is much larger than the metro Closures dimension's confirmed-closed count, which additionally requires Google/news/field corroboration. A delinquent license is not by itself proof the business has shut.

Ownership Turnover Hidden failure

A storefront can fail — the business dies — while the license and address keep operating under a new owner. That “silent supertransition” hides failure behind a low closure rate, so turnover is tracked here as a second, distinct failure axis alongside confirmed closures.

Ownership turnover CHURNING 19.9% of 2437 active addresses (485 flagged) — heavy ownership turnover (possible hidden failure)

⚠ Confirmed closures are just 3.8%, but ownership is turning over at 19.9% — failure here is largely hidden as ownership flips, not closures.

Top turnover storefronts

Addresses where this cuisine operates today and the license/address has cycled owners or concepts within ~5 years.

							Open
4116 N HIMES AVE	Tampa	Hillsborough	52	49	Concept failure	YBOR PRESS 208	›
1 TROPICANA DR	St. Petersburg	Pinellas	46	45	Concept failure	PACIFIC COUNTER	›
601 BISCAYNE BLVD	Miami	Dade	53	41	Concept failure	FLAGSHIP SOUTH	›
11770 A METRO PKWY	Fort Myers	Lee	34	33	Concept failure	JAMIE'S CUISINE	›
1850 EMERSON ST	Jacksonville	Duval	34	33	Concept failure	CREATE & CRUMB	›
1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PLAZA	Orlando	Orange	24	21	Concept failure	PIZZA PREDATORIA MINI GRILL (EMPLOYEE)
12801 WEST SUNRISE BLVD	Sunrise	Broward	21	20	Concept failure	TUTTIRUTTI GROUP
1365 N MONORAIL WAY	Bay Lake	Orange	21	20	Concept failure	SLEEPY HOLLOW
1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PL	Orlando	Orange	18	17	Concept failure	FINNEGAN'S BAR & GRILL
1 LEGOLAND WAY	Winter Haven	Polk	16	15	Concept failure	ARAMARK AT LEGOLAND SHIPWRECK RESTAURANT	›
7007 SEA WORLD DR	Orlando	Orange	15	14	Concept failure	SEAFIRE RESTAURANT AND FLAME CRAFT BAR
4441 COLLINS AVE	Miami Beach	Dade	14	13	Concept failure	PRIME 54
4100 GEORGE J BEAN PKWY	Tampa	Hillsborough	14	13	Concept failure	DELTA AIR LINES INC
2083 N POWERLINE RD STE 3	Pompano Beach	Broward	12	11	Concept failure	BEBES SIP-N-BITE LLC
18800 S WEST VILLAGES PARKWAY	Venice	Sarasota	11	9	Concept failure	ATLANTA BRAVES SPRING TRAINING COMPLEX

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Charts

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46) by quarter


2015 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2016 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2016 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2016 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2016 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2017 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2017 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2017 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2017 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2018 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2018 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2018 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2018 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2019 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2019 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2019 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2019 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2020 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2020 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2020 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2020 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2021 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2021 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2021 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2021 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2022 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2022 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2022 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2022 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2023 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2023 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2023 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2023 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2024 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2024 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2024 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2024 Q4	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2025 Q1	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2025 Q2	0.0	2.1627906976744184
2025 Q3	16.0	2.1627906976744184
2025 Q4	28.0	2.1627906976744184
2026 Q1	20.0	2.1627906976744184
2026 Q2	29.0	2.1627906976744184
2026 Q3	0.0	2.1627906976744184

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure-rate breakdown


St. Johns	38	12	31.6%	0.44
Alachua	20	4	20.0%	0.14
Clay	18	3	16.7%	0.14
Duval	117	13	11.1%	0.13
Nassau	10	1	10.0%	0.11
Flagler	11	1	9.1%	0.09
Polk	44	4	9.1%	0.06
Citrus	13	1	7.7%	0.07
Volusia	67	4	6.0%	0.07
Hernando	18	1	5.6%	0.05
Martin	18	1	5.6%	0.06
Osceola	38	2	5.3%	0.05
Pinellas	143	6	4.2%	0.06
Manatee	49	2	4.1%	0.05
Lee	83	3	3.6%	0.04
Hillsborough	139	5	3.6%	0.03
Lake	34	1	2.9%	0.03
Seminole	36	1	2.8%	0.02
Collier	74	2	2.7%	0.05
Pasco	38	1	2.6%	0.02
Orange	235	6	2.6%	0.04
Broward	246	6	2.4%	0.03
Dade	437	7	1.6%	0.03
Brevard	65	1	1.5%	0.02
Sarasota	75	1	1.3%	0.02
Palm Beach	230	3	1.3%	0.02
Highlands	11	0	0.0%	0.00
St. Lucie	23	0	0.0%	0.00
Marion	13	0	0.0%	0.00
Indian River	28	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Top same-address churn locations

						Open
860 NE 79 ST STE B	Miami	Dade	323	564	57.3%	›
1850 EMERSON ST	Jacksonville	Duval	301	701	42.9%	›
809 N MAGNOLIA AVE	Ocala	Marion	251	611	41.1%	›
2640 KUNZE AVE	Orlando	Orange	237	512	46.3%	›
11770 A METRO PKWY	Fort Myers	Lee	235	506	46.4%	›
5960 RICHARD ST	Jacksonville	Duval	200	752	26.6%	›
866 NE 79 ST	Miami	Dade	198	376	52.7%	›
5224 S DALE MABRY HWY	Tampa	Hillsborough	193	384	50.3%	›
4116 N HIMES AVE	Tampa	Hillsborough	187	761	24.6%	›
5007 N HIATUS RD	Sunrise	Broward	174	447	38.9%	›
929 W MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	158	295	53.6%	›
1 TROPICANA DR	St. Petersburg	Pinellas	150	379	39.6%	›
1 TIAA BANK FIELD DR	Jacksonville	Duval	129	353	36.5%	›
13920 SW 139 CT	Miami	Dade	108	366	29.5%	›
411 S FEDERAL HWY	Boynton Beach	Palm Beach	107	260	41.2%	›
5811 W IRLO BRONSON MEMORIAL HWY	Kissimmee	Osceola	103	332	31.0%	›
6657 49 ST N	Pinellas Park	Pinellas	103	179	57.5%	›
1400 COLONIAL BLVD STE 35	Fort Myers	Lee	102	241	42.3%	›
4880 DISTRIBUTION CT	Orlando	Orange	100	261	38.3%	›
1206 W ROBINSON ST	Orlando	Orange	95	250	38.0%	›

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure rates


St. Johns	38	12	31.6%	0.44
Alachua	20	4	20.0%	0.14
Clay	18	3	16.7%	0.14
Duval	117	13	11.1%	0.13
Nassau	10	1	10.0%	0.11
Flagler	11	1	9.1%	0.09
Polk	44	4	9.1%	0.06
Citrus	13	1	7.7%	0.07
Volusia	67	4	6.0%	0.07
Hernando	18	1	5.6%	0.05
Martin	18	1	5.6%	0.06
Osceola	38	2	5.3%	0.05
Pinellas	143	6	4.2%	0.06
Manatee	49	2	4.1%	0.05
Lee	83	3	3.6%	0.04
Hillsborough	139	5	3.6%	0.03
Lake	34	1	2.9%	0.03
Seminole	36	1	2.8%	0.02
Collier	74	2	2.7%	0.05
Pasco	38	1	2.6%	0.02
Orange	235	6	2.6%	0.04
Broward	246	6	2.4%	0.03
Dade	437	7	1.6%	0.03
Brevard	65	1	1.5%	0.02
Sarasota	75	1	1.3%	0.02
Palm Beach	230	3	1.3%	0.02
Highlands	11	0	0.0%	0.00
St. Lucie	23	0	0.0%	0.00
Marion	13	0	0.0%	0.00
Indian River	28	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Data sources: Business turnover trends. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.