Bakery Turnover Deep-Dive

Bakery in Florida shows 3.7% closure pressure across 893 active licenses.

ROUTINE closure pressure -- a normal level of churn. 3.7%
893 active licenses tracked.
FLIPPING ownership turnover -- extreme turnover — failure likely hidden as ownership flips. 40.0%
Closure signal clusters in Duval, Orange, Lake.
Failure here is largely HIDDEN -- low closures but heavy ownership turnover (a silent supertransition).

Failure pressure CRITICAL Confirmed closure rate 3.7% — ROUTINE Ownership turnover 40.0% — FLIPPING

⚠ ownership turnover may be hiding failure

A low closure rate alone does not mean a cuisine is healthy: ownership can quietly turn over (a 'silent supertransition'), so a storefront keeps serving under new owners while the original business has effectively failed.

Ownership-turnover rate = this cuisine's active addresses that appear in the supertransition timeline or the DBPR Approve-Change-Owner feed within ~5y, over its active address count. It is a defensible LOWER BOUND -- the owner-change feed is a partial extract.

Active893

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46)33

Closure rate3.7%

Dominant countiesDuval, Orange, Lake

Counts here are DBPR licenses in delinquent/inactive status (Primary Status Code 45 or 46) -- a public-record regulatory state, not a confirmed business closure. This delinquent population is much larger than the metro Closures dimension's confirmed-closed count, which additionally requires Google/news/field corroboration. A delinquent license is not by itself proof the business has shut.

Ownership Turnover Hidden failure

A storefront can fail — the business dies — while the license and address keep operating under a new owner. That “silent supertransition” hides failure behind a low closure rate, so turnover is tracked here as a second, distinct failure axis alongside confirmed closures.

Ownership turnover FLIPPING 40.0% of 882 active addresses (353 flagged) — extreme turnover — failure likely hidden as ownership flips

⚠ Confirmed closures are just 3.7%, but ownership is turning over at 40.0% — failure here is largely hidden as ownership flips, not closures.

Top turnover storefronts

Addresses where this cuisine operates today and the license/address has cycled owners or concepts within ~5 years.

							Open
11770 A METRO PKWY	Fort Myers	Lee	49	48	Concept failure	SPOON & THYME CATERING	›
1 TROPICANA DR	St. Petersburg	Pinellas	47	46	Concept failure	PACIFIC COUNTER	›
1020 W MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	40	39	Concept failure	EL RESUELVE	›
1850 EMERSON ST	Jacksonville	Duval	39	38	Concept failure	MY WELLNESS CUISINE	›
1 TIAA BANK FIELD DR	Jacksonville	Duval	37	34	Concept failure	CS 405/SMOKEY QUE'S	›
9800 INTERNATIONAL DR	Orlando	Orange	38	33	Concept failure	CREATE A BOWL 2	›
4700 W SAND LAKE RD	Orlando	Orange	27	26	Concept failure	B1270 CARTS SUPPORT KITCHEN
12801 W SUNRISE BLVD	Sunrise	Broward	24	23	Concept failure	FIRE HOUSE SUB
1020 W. MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	18	17	Concept failure	PAPAS EST 2026	›
1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PL	Orlando	Orange	18	17	Concept failure	IOASIS EMPLOYEE GRILL
401 BISCAYNE BLVD STE S102	Miami	Dade	17	16	Concept failure	HOLY BUREK
8001 S ORANGE BLOSSOM TRL STE FC14	Orlando	Orange	17	16	Concept failure	COSECHAS
1501 NW 3 ST	Miami	Dade	16	15	Concept failure	01.15.02 THE CLUB	›
1321 NW 155 DR	Miami	Dade	16	15	Concept failure	TAIKO SUSHI	›
7007 SEA WORLD DR	Orlando	Orange	15	14	Concept failure	EXPEDITION CAFE

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Charts

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46) by quarter


2015 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2016 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2016 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2016 Q3	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2016 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2017 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2017 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2017 Q3	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2017 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2018 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2018 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2018 Q3	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2018 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2019 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2019 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2019 Q3	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2019 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2020 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2020 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2020 Q3	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2020 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2021 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2021 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2021 Q3	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2021 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2022 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2022 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2022 Q3	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2022 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2023 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2023 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2023 Q3	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2023 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2024 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2024 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2024 Q3	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2024 Q4	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2025 Q1	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2025 Q2	0.0	0.6744186046511628
2025 Q3	7.0	0.6744186046511628
2025 Q4	7.0	0.6744186046511628
2026 Q1	9.0	0.6744186046511628
2026 Q2	6.0	0.6744186046511628
2026 Q3	4.0	0.6744186046511628

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure-rate breakdown


Duval	33	5	15.2%	0.05
Orange	81	8	9.9%	0.06
Lake	12	1	8.3%	0.03
Volusia	17	1	5.9%	0.02
Polk	18	1	5.6%	0.01
Palm Beach	74	4	5.4%	0.03
Lee	41	2	4.9%	0.03
Osceola	34	1	2.9%	0.03
Dade	187	3	1.6%	0.01
Broward	131	2	1.5%	0.01
Brevard	15	0	0.0%	0.00
St. Lucie	16	0	0.0%	0.00
Collier	17	0	0.0%	0.00
Seminole	18	0	0.0%	0.00
Hillsborough	51	0	0.0%	0.00
St. Johns	14	0	0.0%	0.00
Pinellas	44	0	0.0%	0.00
Sarasota	18	0	0.0%	0.00
Manatee	10	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Top same-address churn locations

						Open
860 NE 79 ST STE B	Miami	Dade	323	564	57.3%	›
1850 EMERSON ST	Jacksonville	Duval	303	715	42.4%	›
809 N MAGNOLIA AVE	Ocala	Marion	252	618	40.8%	›
11770 A METRO PKWY	Fort Myers	Lee	238	509	46.8%	›
2640 KUNZE AVE	Orlando	Orange	237	512	46.3%	›
5960 RICHARD ST	Jacksonville	Duval	204	767	26.6%	›
866 NE 79 ST	Miami	Dade	200	381	52.5%	›
5224 S DALE MABRY HWY	Tampa	Hillsborough	194	385	50.4%	›
4116 N HIMES AVE	Tampa	Hillsborough	187	761	24.6%	›
5007 N HIATUS RD	Sunrise	Broward	174	450	38.7%	›
929 W MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	158	295	53.6%	›
1 TROPICANA DR	St. Petersburg	Pinellas	150	379	39.6%	›
1 TIAA BANK FIELD DR	Jacksonville	Duval	129	353	36.5%	›
13920 SW 139 CT	Miami	Dade	109	367	29.7%	›
411 S FEDERAL HWY	Boynton Beach	Palm Beach	107	260	41.2%	›
5811 W IRLO BRONSON MEMORIAL HWY	Kissimmee	Osceola	103	333	30.9%	›
6657 49 ST N	Pinellas Park	Pinellas	103	179	57.5%	›
1400 COLONIAL BLVD STE 35	Fort Myers	Lee	102	241	42.3%	›
4880 DISTRIBUTION CT	Orlando	Orange	100	266	37.6%	›
1206 W ROBINSON ST	Orlando	Orange	95	251	37.8%	›

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure rates


Duval	33	5	15.2%	0.05
Orange	81	8	9.9%	0.06
Lake	12	1	8.3%	0.03
Volusia	17	1	5.9%	0.02
Polk	18	1	5.6%	0.01
Palm Beach	74	4	5.4%	0.03
Lee	41	2	4.9%	0.03
Osceola	34	1	2.9%	0.03
Dade	187	3	1.6%	0.01
Broward	131	2	1.5%	0.01
Brevard	15	0	0.0%	0.00
St. Lucie	16	0	0.0%	0.00
Collier	17	0	0.0%	0.00
Seminole	18	0	0.0%	0.00
Hillsborough	51	0	0.0%	0.00
St. Johns	14	0	0.0%	0.00
Pinellas	44	0	0.0%	0.00
Sarasota	18	0	0.0%	0.00
Manatee	10	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Data sources: Business turnover trends. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.