Bar Turnover Deep-Dive

Bar in Florida shows 3.9% closure pressure across 1,979 active licenses.

• ROUTINE closure pressure -- a normal level of churn. 3.9%
• 1,979 active licenses tracked.
• CHURNING ownership turnover -- heavy ownership turnover (possible hidden failure). 21.9%
• Closure signal clusters in Duval, St. Johns, Lake.
• Failure here is largely HIDDEN -- low closures but heavy ownership turnover (a silent supertransition).

A low closure rate alone does not mean a cuisine is healthy: ownership can quietly turn over (a 'silent supertransition'), so a storefront keeps serving under new owners while the original business has effectively failed.

Ownership-turnover rate = this cuisine's active addresses that appear in the supertransition timeline or the DBPR Approve-Change-Owner feed within ~5y, over its active address count. It is a defensible LOWER BOUND -- the owner-change feed is a partial extract.

Counts here are DBPR licenses in delinquent/inactive status (Primary Status Code 45 or 46) -- a public-record regulatory state, not a confirmed business closure. This delinquent population is much larger than the metro Closures dimension's confirmed-closed count, which additionally requires Google/news/field corroboration. A delinquent license is not by itself proof the business has shut.