Diner Turnover Deep-Dive

Diner in Florida shows 3.5% closure pressure across 2,258 active licenses.

ROUTINE closure pressure -- a normal level of churn. 3.5%
2,258 active licenses tracked.
CHURNING ownership turnover -- heavy ownership turnover (possible hidden failure). 17.2%
Closure signal clusters in St. Johns, Clay, Duval.
Failure here is largely HIDDEN -- low closures but heavy ownership turnover (a silent supertransition).

Failure pressure HIGH Confirmed closure rate 3.5% — ROUTINE Ownership turnover 17.2% — CHURNING

⚠ ownership turnover may be hiding failure

A low closure rate alone does not mean a cuisine is healthy: ownership can quietly turn over (a 'silent supertransition'), so a storefront keeps serving under new owners while the original business has effectively failed.

Ownership-turnover rate = this cuisine's active addresses that appear in the supertransition timeline or the DBPR Approve-Change-Owner feed within ~5y, over its active address count. It is a defensible LOWER BOUND -- the owner-change feed is a partial extract.

Active2,258

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46)79

Closure rate3.5%

Dominant countiesSt. Johns, Clay, Duval

Counts here are DBPR licenses in delinquent/inactive status (Primary Status Code 45 or 46) -- a public-record regulatory state, not a confirmed business closure. This delinquent population is much larger than the metro Closures dimension's confirmed-closed count, which additionally requires Google/news/field corroboration. A delinquent license is not by itself proof the business has shut.

Ownership Turnover Hidden failure

A storefront can fail — the business dies — while the license and address keep operating under a new owner. That “silent supertransition” hides failure behind a low closure rate, so turnover is tracked here as a second, distinct failure axis alongside confirmed closures.

Ownership turnover CHURNING 17.2% of 2237 active addresses (384 flagged) — heavy ownership turnover (possible hidden failure)

⚠ Confirmed closures are just 3.5%, but ownership is turning over at 17.2% — failure here is largely hidden as ownership flips, not closures.

Top turnover storefronts

Addresses where this cuisine operates today and the license/address has cycled owners or concepts within ~5 years.

							Open
1 TROPICANA DR	St. Petersburg	Pinellas	46	45	Concept failure	PACIFIC COUNTER	›
1020 W MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	33	32	Concept failure	VAULT APOPKA	›
4700 W SAND LAKE RD	Orlando	Orange	27	26	Concept failure	UC LEGACY CLUB
1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PLAZA	Orlando	Orange	24	21	Concept failure	BIGFIRE AMERICAN FARE
1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PL	Orlando	Orange	18	17	Concept failure	LEMON FROST PRODUCTION FACILIT
401 BISCAYNE BLVD STE S101	Miami	Dade	17	16	Concept failure	HOLY BUREK
1 LEGOLAND WAY	Winter Haven	Polk	16	15	Concept failure	ARAMARK AT LEGOLAND SHIPWRECK RESTAURANT	›
501 E CAMINO REAL	Boca Raton	Palm Beach	15	14	Concept failure	BOCA WHIP & JB'S BURGER BAR
9101 INTERNATIONAL DR STE 2210	Orlando	Orange	14	13	Concept failure	CAPITAL GRILLE #8025
9801 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE	Orlando	Orange	12	11	Concept failure	ICHARO SUSHI
4414 SW COLLEGE RD STE 420	Ocala	Marion	10	9	Concept failure	CRAZY CUCUMBER MARKET STREET
6000 W OSCEOLA PKWY	Kissimmee	Osceola	9	8	Concept failure	COLD STONE CREAMERY 24265
19501 BISCAYNE BLVD UNIT 1944	Aventura	Dade	9	8	Concept failure	PIPA
10500 ULMERTON RD STE 750	Largo	Pinellas	9	8	Concept failure	JERSEY MIKE'S SUBS
10801 CORKSCREW RD STE 61	Estero	Lee	8	7	Concept failure	BANH MI & TEA ESTERO

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Charts

Delinquent licenses (DBPR 45/46) by quarter


2015 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2016 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2016 Q2	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2016 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2016 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2017 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2017 Q2	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2017 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2017 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2018 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2018 Q2	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2018 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2018 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2019 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2019 Q2	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2019 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2019 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2020 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2020 Q2	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2020 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2020 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2021 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2021 Q2	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2021 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2021 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2022 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2022 Q2	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2022 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2022 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2023 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2023 Q2	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2023 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2023 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2024 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2024 Q2	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2024 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2024 Q4	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2025 Q1	0.0	1.8372093023255813
2025 Q2	2.0	1.8372093023255813
2025 Q3	6.0	1.8372093023255813
2025 Q4	15.0	1.8372093023255813
2026 Q1	40.0	1.8372093023255813
2026 Q2	16.0	1.8372093023255813
2026 Q3	0.0	1.8372093023255813

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure-rate breakdown


St. Johns	25	4	16.0%	0.15
Clay	16	2	12.5%	0.09
Duval	116	14	12.1%	0.14
St. Lucie	34	4	11.8%	0.12
Flagler	11	1	9.1%	0.09
Lake	48	4	8.3%	0.10
Columbia	13	1	7.7%	0.14
Alachua	39	3	7.7%	0.11
Osceola	49	3	6.1%	0.08
Indian River	17	1	5.9%	0.06
Marion	55	3	5.5%	0.08
Polk	77	4	5.2%	0.06
Orange	176	7	4.0%	0.05
Brevard	94	3	3.2%	0.05
Pinellas	132	4	3.0%	0.04
Hillsborough	151	4	2.6%	0.03
Volusia	87	2	2.3%	0.04
Seminole	55	1	1.8%	0.02
Broward	180	3	1.7%	0.02
Sarasota	66	1	1.5%	0.02
Lee	103	1	1.0%	0.01
Dade	193	1	0.5%	0.00
Citrus	26	0	0.0%	0.00
Highlands	14	0	0.0%	0.00
Collier	57	0	0.0%	0.00
Hernando	14	0	0.0%	0.00
Manatee	52	0	0.0%	0.00
Martin	20	0	0.0%	0.00
Charlotte	28	0	0.0%	0.00
Monroe	24	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Top same-address churn locations

						Open
860 NE 79 ST STE B	Miami	Dade	323	564	57.3%	›
1850 EMERSON ST	Jacksonville	Duval	301	701	42.9%	›
809 N MAGNOLIA AVE	Ocala	Marion	251	611	41.1%	›
2640 KUNZE AVE	Orlando	Orange	237	512	46.3%	›
11770 A METRO PKWY	Fort Myers	Lee	235	506	46.4%	›
5960 RICHARD ST	Jacksonville	Duval	200	752	26.6%	›
866 NE 79 ST	Miami	Dade	198	376	52.7%	›
5224 S DALE MABRY HWY	Tampa	Hillsborough	193	384	50.3%	›
4116 N HIMES AVE	Tampa	Hillsborough	187	761	24.6%	›
5007 N HIATUS RD	Sunrise	Broward	174	447	38.9%	›
929 W MICHIGAN ST	Orlando	Orange	158	295	53.6%	›
1 TROPICANA DR	St. Petersburg	Pinellas	150	379	39.6%	›
1 TIAA BANK FIELD DR	Jacksonville	Duval	129	353	36.5%	›
13920 SW 139 CT	Miami	Dade	108	366	29.5%	›
411 S FEDERAL HWY	Boynton Beach	Palm Beach	107	260	41.2%	›
5811 W IRLO BRONSON MEMORIAL HWY	Kissimmee	Osceola	103	332	31.0%	›
6657 49 ST N	Pinellas Park	Pinellas	103	179	57.5%	›
1400 COLONIAL BLVD STE 35	Fort Myers	Lee	102	241	42.3%	›
4880 DISTRIBUTION CT	Orlando	Orange	100	261	38.3%	›
1206 W ROBINSON ST	Orlando	Orange	95	250	38.0%	›

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

County closure rates


St. Johns	25	4	16.0%	0.15
Clay	16	2	12.5%	0.09
Duval	116	14	12.1%	0.14
St. Lucie	34	4	11.8%	0.12
Flagler	11	1	9.1%	0.09
Lake	48	4	8.3%	0.10
Columbia	13	1	7.7%	0.14
Alachua	39	3	7.7%	0.11
Osceola	49	3	6.1%	0.08
Indian River	17	1	5.9%	0.06
Marion	55	3	5.5%	0.08
Polk	77	4	5.2%	0.06
Orange	176	7	4.0%	0.05
Brevard	94	3	3.2%	0.05
Pinellas	132	4	3.0%	0.04
Hillsborough	151	4	2.6%	0.03
Volusia	87	2	2.3%	0.04
Seminole	55	1	1.8%	0.02
Broward	180	3	1.7%	0.02
Sarasota	66	1	1.5%	0.02
Lee	103	1	1.0%	0.01
Dade	193	1	0.5%	0.00
Citrus	26	0	0.0%	0.00
Highlands	14	0	0.0%	0.00
Collier	57	0	0.0%	0.00
Hernando	14	0	0.0%	0.00
Manatee	52	0	0.0%	0.00
Martin	20	0	0.0%	0.00
Charlotte	28	0	0.0%	0.00
Monroe	24	0	0.0%	0.00

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Data sources: Business turnover trends. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.