Monthly · Business turnover trends

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Cuisine Turnover Index Monthly Brief

Monthly closure, operator-churn, and concept-change narrative by cuisine.

Cuisine turnover in June 2026: closure rate, operator churn, and concept-change pressure are no longer telling the same story. The raw closure-count leaders for June 2026 were Italian & Pizza (23), Diner (17), Mexican (17), Cafe (16), Desserts (16). The rate table below asks a harder question: where did closures matter most relative to the active cuisine base?

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Updated 2026-07-07 11:46 UTC

By RiskyEats / FRI Editorial Desk

Cuisines ranked25
June 2026 delinquent records (DBPR 45/46)864
Highest monthly closure rate5.0%
Supertransition addresses0

Cuisine turnover in June 2026 is not one scoreboard. It is three scoreboards laid on top of each other: 864 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in the DBPR license file, 0 same-address operator churn records in the same-address churn corpus, and 1,814 proxy concept-change events in the displacement table. A delinquent license is a public-record regulatory state, not by itself proof a business has closed.

That is why Pizza can remain visible in the raw count column while a category like British can lead the rate table. The former tells you where the market is big. The latter tells you where the active base is getting thinned faster than its size would predict.

Source dataset: output/licenses_hr.parquet joined to output/oss_places_enriched.parquet.

Top 10 Cuisines by Delinquency Rate (DBPR 45/46)

British: 1 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 5.0 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is new activity from a zero prior base versus the prior month; named records include DUVAL FISH & CHICKEN in Jacksonville.

Korean: 3 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 3.3 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is up 200.0% versus the prior month; named records include SAIKO SUSHI in Jacksonville Beach, BULGOGI HOUSE III in Orlando, and JAWS TOPOKKI UNIT 2 in Orlando.

Dominican: 1 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 2.9 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is new activity from a zero prior base versus the prior month; named records include EMPANADAS LATINA & MAS in Kissimmee.

Australian: 1 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 2.7 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is new activity from a zero prior base versus the prior month; named records include OUTBACK STEAKHOUSE-WINTER GARDEN in Winter Garden.

Tiki Bar: 2 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 2.5 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is new activity from a zero prior base versus the prior month; named records include BOATHOUSE TIKI BAR & GRILL in Cape Coral, and POLAR SHAKE INTERNATIONAL DR in Orlando.

Lebanese: 1 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 2.4 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is new activity from a zero prior base versus the prior month; named records include WALLY'S GYROS AND SUBS in Jacksonville.

Caribbean: 3 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 2.3 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is up 200.0% versus the prior month; named records include CARIBBEAN & SOULE CAFE AND GRILL LLC in Saint Augustine, BALLAS CARIBBEAN RESTAURANT in Jacksonville, and TROPICAL PARADISE in Orlando.

Brazilian: 2 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 2.2 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is new activity from a zero prior base versus the prior month; named records include DULCE ONCE 11 ARTISAN PASTRY AND MORE LLC in Orlando, and MRS POTATO RESTAURANT in Orlando.

Hot Dogs: 2 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 2.1 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is new activity from a zero prior base versus the prior month; named records include BEER & DOGS in St Augustine, and TURNPIKE in Spring Hill.

Bagels: 5 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records in June 2026, equal to 2.1 delinquent per 100 active licenses. That is up 400.0% versus the prior month; named records include HOLEY MOLEY NY BAGEL in Jacksonville, BAGELS R US #5 in Yulee, and BAGELS R US #6 in Jacksonville.

Source dataset: output/licenses_hr.parquet, current active licenses and DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) records dated inside the last complete month. Delinquency is a regulatory state, not confirmed closure.

Top 10 by monthly closure rate

British 1 20 5.0% 5.0 0 DUVAL FISH & CHICKEN in Jacksonville
Korean 3 92 3.3% 3.3 1 SAIKO SUSHI in Jacksonville Beach, BULGOGI HOUSE III in Orlando, and JAWS TOPOKKI UNIT 2 in Orlando
Dominican 1 34 2.9% 2.9 0 EMPANADAS LATINA & MAS in Kissimmee
Australian 1 37 2.7% 2.7 0 OUTBACK STEAKHOUSE-WINTER GARDEN in Winter Garden
Tiki Bar 2 79 2.5% 2.5 0 BOATHOUSE TIKI BAR & GRILL in Cape Coral, and POLAR SHAKE INTERNATIONAL DR in Orlando
Lebanese 1 42 2.4% 2.4 0 WALLY'S GYROS AND SUBS in Jacksonville
Caribbean 3 131 2.3% 2.3 1 CARIBBEAN & SOULE CAFE AND GRILL LLC in Saint Augustine, BALLAS CARIBBEAN RESTAURANT in Jacksonville, and TROPICAL PARADISE in Orlando
Brazilian 2 92 2.2% 2.2 0 DULCE ONCE 11 ARTISAN PASTRY AND MORE LLC in Orlando, and MRS POTATO RESTAURANT in Orlando
Hot Dogs 2 95 2.1% 2.1 0 BEER & DOGS in St Augustine, and TURNPIKE in Spring Hill
Bagels 5 239 2.1% 2.1 1 HOLEY MOLEY NY BAGEL in Jacksonville, BAGELS R US #5 in Yulee, and BAGELS R US #6 in Jacksonville

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/licenses_hr.parquet.

Top 10 Cuisines by Operator Churn

Sandwiches: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 11934 SEMINOLE BLVD in Largo (MARIA'S SILVER SPOON -> BLUE MOON DINER -> ROO ROO¿S DINER -> ROO ROOS DINER), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Desserts: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 1 TROPICANA DR in St. Petersburg (PORTABLE C311 -> PARK AND REC BAR -> ST138 PAPA JOHNS -> ST144 FAN FAVORITES), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Fast Food: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 1850 EMERSON ST in Jacksonville (TIE THE KNOT CATERING -> THE CUBAN SALSA -> BACK2BACK CATERING -> JAX KITCHEN), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Sports Bar: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 1 TIAA BANK FIELD DR in Jacksonville (SOUTH KITCHEN -> CS 135-136 EAST/ MAC & CHEESE- THE MELT -> TERRACE SUITE -> WEST PRETZEL), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Cafe: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 1901 CONVENTION CENTER DR in Miami Beach (MAIN KITCHEN #2 -> CART 4 BASMATI -> CART 6 VEDGEBAR -> CART 2 CUBAN), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Cocktail Bar: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 10300 W FOREST HILL BLVD in Wellington (YOGURBELLA -> MCDONALD'S #28180 -> CHICK-FIL-A OF THE MALL AT WELLINGTON GREEN -> CASK & SHAKER), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Juice/Smoothie: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 817 N MASSACHUSETTS AVE in Lakeland (HOT - N - BOX -> DAY-DAYS KITCHEN -> FLAVOR NATION -> FIVE FINGER LICKZ), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Health Food: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 40 SW 12 ST in Miami (CITY SLICKERS SUBS & SALADS BRICKELL -> CITY SLICKERS -> SERGIO'S CUBAN CAFE + GRILL -> SPROUTZ), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Latin American: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 7187 SW 8 ST in Miami (LA FRITANGA -> TEJAS DE HONDURAS CORP -> TEJAS DE HONDURAS MIAMI -> PLAZA VENEZUELA), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Cuban: 0 same-address churn locations, or 0.0 per 100 active licenses. A representative address is 215 S WOODLAND BLVD in Deland (SINATRA'S DOWNTOWN RISTORANTE -> ARTISAN GRILL -> ARTISIAN DOWNTOWN -> CHICAS CUBAN CAFE LLC), which is the kind of same-address churn that makes cuisine stability look cleaner than the retail history underneath it.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, cuisines_super_ranked; address histories from output/inspections.parquet.

Top 10 by operator-churn rate

Sandwiches 0 1590 0.0% 0.0 11934 SEMINOLE BLVD in Largo (MARIA'S SILVER SPOON -> BLUE MOON DINER -> ROO ROO¿S DINER -> ROO ROOS DINER)
Desserts 0 2002 0.0% 0.0 1 TROPICANA DR in St. Petersburg (PORTABLE C311 -> PARK AND REC BAR -> ST138 PAPA JOHNS -> ST144 FAN FAVORITES)
Fast Food 0 3566 0.0% 0.0 1850 EMERSON ST in Jacksonville (TIE THE KNOT CATERING -> THE CUBAN SALSA -> BACK2BACK CATERING -> JAX KITCHEN)
Sports Bar 0 605 0.0% 0.0 1 TIAA BANK FIELD DR in Jacksonville (SOUTH KITCHEN -> CS 135-136 EAST/ MAC & CHEESE- THE MELT -> TERRACE SUITE -> WEST PRETZEL)
Cafe 0 2479 0.0% 0.0 1901 CONVENTION CENTER DR in Miami Beach (MAIN KITCHEN #2 -> CART 4 BASMATI -> CART 6 VEDGEBAR -> CART 2 CUBAN)
Cocktail Bar 0 245 0.0% 0.0 10300 W FOREST HILL BLVD in Wellington (YOGURBELLA -> MCDONALD'S #28180 -> CHICK-FIL-A OF THE MALL AT WELLINGTON GREEN -> CASK & SHAKER)
Juice/Smoothie 0 478 0.0% 0.0 817 N MASSACHUSETTS AVE in Lakeland (HOT - N - BOX -> DAY-DAYS KITCHEN -> FLAVOR NATION -> FIVE FINGER LICKZ)
Health Food 0 455 0.0% 0.0 40 SW 12 ST in Miami (CITY SLICKERS SUBS & SALADS BRICKELL -> CITY SLICKERS -> SERGIO'S CUBAN CAFE + GRILL -> SPROUTZ)
Latin American 0 304 0.0% 0.0 7187 SW 8 ST in Miami (LA FRITANGA -> TEJAS DE HONDURAS CORP -> TEJAS DE HONDURAS MIAMI -> PLAZA VENEZUELA)
Cuban 0 481 0.0% 0.0 215 S WOODLAND BLVD in Deland (SINATRA'S DOWNTOWN RISTORANTE -> ARTISAN GRILL -> ARTISIAN DOWNTOWN -> CHICAS CUBAN CAFE LLC)

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json.

Top 10 Cuisines by Concept Change

Bar to Cafe: 291 proxy events, 8.2% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 1901 CONVENTION CENTER DR in Miami Beach (MAIN KITCHEN #2 -> CART 9 -> CART 5 TACOS -> CART 7 OCEAN MARKET).

American to Bar: 264 proxy events, 7.5% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 400 AVENUE OF THE CHAMPIONS in Palm Beach Gardens (PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- MEMBERS CLUBHOUSE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- CITRUS TREE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- BANQUETS -> PGA NTL RESORT & SPA IRONWOOD GRILLE).

Seafood to Bar: 197 proxy events, 5.6% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 400 AVENUE OF THE CHAMPIONS in Palm Beach Gardens (PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- MEMBERS CLUBHOUSE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- BANQUETS -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- CITRUS TREE -> PGA NTL RESORT & SPA IRONWOOD GRILLE).

Cafe to Bar: 181 proxy events, 5.1% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 400 AVENUE OF THE CHAMPIONS in Palm Beach Gardens (PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- MEMBERS CLUBHOUSE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- CITRUS TREE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- BANQUETS -> PGA NTL RESORT & SPA IRONWOOD GRILLE).

Bar to Seafood: 178 proxy events, 5.0% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 1258 PALM BEACH LAKES BLVD in West Palm Beach (KEY WEST FISH & CHICKEN INC -> KEY WEST FISH & CHICKEN -> SHARKY'S -> SNAPPERS).

Cafe to American: 159 proxy events, 4.5% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 7007 SEA WORLD DR in Orlando (CYPRESS BAKERY -> POLAR PARLOR ICE CREAM -> PRETZEL KITCHEN -> VOYAGER RESTAURANT).

Bar to American: 154 proxy events, 4.4% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 7007 SEA WORLD DR in Orlando (PRETZEL KITCHEN -> POLAR PARLOR ICE CREAM -> CYPRESS BAKERY -> VOYAGER RESTAURANT).

American to Cafe: 139 proxy events, 3.9% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 1901 CONVENTION CENTER DR in Miami Beach (MAIN KITCHEN #2 -> CART 9 -> CART 5 TACOS -> CART 4 BASMATI).

Fast Food to Italian & Pizza: 133 proxy events, 3.8% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 4116 N HIMES AVE in Tampa (MAIN KITCHEN -> LOWER GALLEY RESTAURANT EAST -> PIZZA PLANK 134C -> SUITE PANTRY US-B).

Italian & Pizza to American: 118 proxy events, 3.3% of the displayed displacement set. The address example to inspect is 7007 SEA WORLD DR in Orlando (CYPRESS BAKERY -> PRETZEL KITCHEN -> POLAR PARLOR ICE CREAM -> VOYAGER RESTAURANT).

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json same-address displacement proxy.

Top 10 concept-change proxy pairs

Bar Cafe 291 8.2% 1901 CONVENTION CENTER DR in Miami Beach (MAIN KITCHEN #2 -> CART 9 -> CART 5 TACOS -> CART 7 OCEAN MARKET)
American Bar 264 7.5% 400 AVENUE OF THE CHAMPIONS in Palm Beach Gardens (PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- MEMBERS CLUBHOUSE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- CITRUS TREE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- BANQUETS -> PGA NTL RESORT & SPA IRONWOOD GRILLE)
Seafood Bar 197 5.6% 400 AVENUE OF THE CHAMPIONS in Palm Beach Gardens (PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- MEMBERS CLUBHOUSE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- BANQUETS -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- CITRUS TREE -> PGA NTL RESORT & SPA IRONWOOD GRILLE)
Cafe Bar 181 5.1% 400 AVENUE OF THE CHAMPIONS in Palm Beach Gardens (PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- MEMBERS CLUBHOUSE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- CITRUS TREE -> PGA NATIONAL RESORT & SPA- BANQUETS -> PGA NTL RESORT & SPA IRONWOOD GRILLE)
Bar Seafood 178 5.0% 1258 PALM BEACH LAKES BLVD in West Palm Beach (KEY WEST FISH & CHICKEN INC -> KEY WEST FISH & CHICKEN -> SHARKY'S -> SNAPPERS)
Cafe American 159 4.5% 7007 SEA WORLD DR in Orlando (CYPRESS BAKERY -> POLAR PARLOR ICE CREAM -> PRETZEL KITCHEN -> VOYAGER RESTAURANT)
Bar American 154 4.4% 7007 SEA WORLD DR in Orlando (PRETZEL KITCHEN -> POLAR PARLOR ICE CREAM -> CYPRESS BAKERY -> VOYAGER RESTAURANT)
American Cafe 139 3.9% 1901 CONVENTION CENTER DR in Miami Beach (MAIN KITCHEN #2 -> CART 9 -> CART 5 TACOS -> CART 4 BASMATI)
Fast Food Italian & Pizza 133 3.8% 4116 N HIMES AVE in Tampa (MAIN KITCHEN -> LOWER GALLEY RESTAURANT EAST -> PIZZA PLANK 134C -> SUITE PANTRY US-B)
Italian & Pizza American 118 3.3% 7007 SEA WORLD DR in Orlando (CYPRESS BAKERY -> PRETZEL KITCHEN -> POLAR PARLOR ICE CREAM -> VOYAGER RESTAURANT)

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json and output/inspections.parquet.

Per-Metro Spotlights

Miami-Dade: Unclassified leads the retail-rebrand turnover read at 0.0%, with 0 same-address churn locations in the metro slice. The named address behind the read is 601 BISCAYNE BLVD in Miami (GYRO CART @325 -> FLAGSHIP NORTH LOUNGE -> PRIME BURGER #324 -> TIGER DIRECT).

Broward: Unclassified leads the retail-rebrand turnover read at 0.0%, with 0 same-address churn locations in the metro slice. The named address behind the read is 5007 N HIATUS RD in Sunrise (CARIBBEAN TOUCH CATERING -> HEIFERS & HOGS CO -> FLAIR CATERING LLC -> THE HAPPY HOUR PRIVATE CHEF SERVICES).

Palm Beach: Unclassified leads the retail-rebrand turnover read at 0.0%, with 0 same-address churn locations in the metro slice. The named address behind the read is 501 E CAMINO REAL in Boca Raton (MIZNER'S MONKEY BAR -> MAIN KITCHEN -> EMPLOYEE CAFETERIA -> MORIMOTO).

Tampa Bay: Unclassified leads the retail-rebrand turnover read at 0.0%, with 0 same-address churn locations in the metro slice. The named address behind the read is 4116 N HIMES AVE in Tampa (MAIN KITCHEN -> LOWER GALLEY RESTAURANT EAST -> THE CAPTAINS GRILL 123D -> THE TREASURE CAFE 213C).

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, top_super_per_metro.

Per-metro retail-rebrand callouts

Miami-Dade Unclassified 0.0% 0 601 BISCAYNE BLVD in Miami (GYRO CART @325 -> FLAGSHIP NORTH LOUNGE -> PRIME BURGER #324 -> TIGER DIRECT)
Broward Unclassified 0.0% 0 5007 N HIATUS RD in Sunrise (CARIBBEAN TOUCH CATERING -> HEIFERS & HOGS CO -> FLAIR CATERING LLC -> THE HAPPY HOUR PRIVATE CHEF SERVICES)
Palm Beach Unclassified 0.0% 0 501 E CAMINO REAL in Boca Raton (MIZNER'S MONKEY BAR -> MAIN KITCHEN -> EMPLOYEE CAFETERIA -> MORIMOTO)
Tampa Bay Unclassified 0.0% 0 4116 N HIMES AVE in Tampa (MAIN KITCHEN -> LOWER GALLEY RESTAURANT EAST -> THE CAPTAINS GRILL 123D -> THE TREASURE CAFE 213C)

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json.

Forward-Look — ORSM Predicted Closure Risk

Of 101,174 ORSM-scored licenses, 4,437 currently sit in the elevated or high risk bands. These are the licenses the baseline model flags as most likely to produce a closure, EOR, or ownership-change event in the coming quarters. They are the forward-look that CTI adds to the rear-view closure-rate table above: where turnover is most likely to happen next, not just where it happened last month.

inspection severity well above peer cuisines: 12 licenses (12 HIGH). Named entities include SWEET BABY RAYS CHICKEN in Jacksonville, YARDIE JAMAICAN CUISINE in Jacksonville, COACH'S BAR AND GRILL VENICE in Venice, and FRITANGA SAZON NICA in Miami. These are the restaurants where the same driver that pushed them into the elevated/high band is the one CTI expects to convert into a turnover event.

severity spike vs self: 3 licenses (3 HIGH). Named entities include TACO BELL #042908 in Miami, SUPREME BEANS BY SEATED TOGETHER in South Daytona, and TOAST CAFE in Fruitland Park. These are the restaurants where the same driver that pushed them into the elevated/high band is the one CTI expects to convert into a turnover event.

Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet (Phase 2 ORSM baseline).

Methodology

Methodology: CTI separates closure-status records, same-address churn locations, and same-address cuisine displacement proxies. Monthly closure rows use the last complete calendar month available to the renderer; supertransition and displacement rows use the full inspection corpus because they require multi-year address histories. The forward-look section is Phase-2-fed from output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet.

Data sources: Business turnover trends. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.