License-Age Cohorts

Kaplan-Meier-style survival curves for restaurant license cohorts.

License-age cohorts show survival as a market structure problem, not only a restaurant-by-restaurant story. A license cohort is all restaurants that first appeared in our inspection records in the same year. This chart shows what fraction of each cohort is still operating today — higher survival at 3+ years means a stronger market class. Cohorts from 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023 are compared on a common survival curve, showing which vintage of restaurants sustains highest closure risk.

Updated 2026-07-07 14:48 UTC

Charts

2017 survival curve


0	100.0%	97.7%
1	99.7%	97.7%
2	99.5%	97.7%
3	99.2%	97.7%
4	99.0%	97.7%
5	98.7%	97.7%
6	98.5%	97.7%
7	98.2%	97.7%
8	97.9%	97.7%
9	97.7%	97.7%

2019 survival curve


0	100.0%	98.1%
1	99.7%	98.1%
2	99.4%	98.1%
3	99.2%	98.1%
4	98.9%	98.1%
5	98.6%	98.1%
6	98.3%	98.1%
7	98.1%	98.1%

2021 survival curve


0	100.0%	96.8%
1	99.4%	96.8%
2	98.7%	96.8%
3	98.1%	96.8%
4	97.4%	96.8%
5	96.8%	96.8%

2023 survival curve


0	100.0%	95.0%
1	98.3%	95.0%
2	96.7%	95.0%
3	95.0%	95.0%

Data sources: Business turnover trends. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.