St. Johns Unclassified
running 5.6x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 5 closures · 100.0% vs summer 2025
Forecasting NIM output was present and this page can be reconciled with output/tse_forecasts.parquet.
Projected summer closures155
Summer 2025 closures320
Acceleration-51.6%
Ranked cuisine-county combos50
Metro callouts
Miami
Lounge closures projected to climb -56.5% above last summer
Driven by Dade; forecast summer count 14 vs 33 in summer 2025.
Ft. LauderdaleSeafood closures projected to climb 56.8% above last summer
Driven by Broward; forecast summer count 2 vs 1 in summer 2025.
West Palm BeachUnclassified closures projected to climb -39.4% above last summer
Driven by Palm Beach; forecast summer count 4 vs 6 in summer 2025.
OrlandoPizza closures projected to climb -59.7% above last summer
Driven by Seminole; forecast summer count 24 vs 60 in summer 2025.
Tampa BayHotel closures projected to climb -63.5% above last summer
Driven by Pinellas; forecast summer count 11 vs 30 in summer 2025.
JacksonvilleUnclassified closures projected to climb 21.2% above last summer
Driven by St. Johns; forecast summer count 42 vs 35 in summer 2025.
Southwest FloridaUnclassified closures projected to climb -34.1% above last summer
Driven by Lee; forecast summer count 1 vs 2 in summer 2025.
North FloridaUnclassified closures projected to climb -18.4% above last summer
Driven by Alachua; forecast summer count 10 vs 12 in summer 2025.
Top 20 accelerating cuisine x county closures
Duval Hotel
running 3.8x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 2 closures · 88.6% vs summer 2025
Dade American
running 3.8x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 2 closures · 88.6% vs summer 2025
Alachua Unclassified
running 2.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 3 closures · 47.7% vs summer 2025
Duval Unclassified
running 2.6x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 18 closures · 38.3% vs summer 2025
Volusia Unclassified
running 2.4x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 3 closures · 72.7% vs summer 2025
Manatee Fast Food
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Dade Lounge
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 100.0% vs summer 2025
Seminole Pizza
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Duval Restaurant
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 3 closures · 100.0% vs summer 2025
Clay Unclassified
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Broward Seafood
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 100.0% vs summer 2025
Lee Unclassified
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Duval Diner
running 1.7x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 31.8% vs summer 2025
Duval Pizza
running 1.3x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 4 closures · -20.9% vs summer 2025
Marion Unclassified
running 1.2x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 7 closures · -26.8% vs summer 2025
Dade Seafood
running 1.1x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 2 closures · 56.8% vs summer 2025
Duval American
running 1.0x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · -34.1% vs summer 2025
Duval Ice Cream
running 1.0x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 3 closures · -34.1% vs summer 2025
Orange Diner
running 1.0x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · -34.1% vs summer 2025
| County | Cuisine | Forecast summer closures | Acceleration | Peer comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Johns | Unclassified | 5 | 100.0% | running 5.6x the typical summer rate |
| Duval | Hotel | 2 | 88.6% | running 3.8x the typical summer rate |
| Dade | American | 2 | 88.6% | running 3.8x the typical summer rate |
| Alachua | Unclassified | 3 | 47.7% | running 2.9x the typical summer rate |
| Duval | Unclassified | 18 | 38.3% | running 2.6x the typical summer rate |
| Volusia | Unclassified | 3 | 72.7% | running 2.4x the typical summer rate |
| Manatee | Fast Food | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Dade | Lounge | 1 | 100.0% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Seminole | Pizza | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Duval | Restaurant | 3 | 100.0% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Clay | Unclassified | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Broward | Seafood | 1 | 100.0% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Lee | Unclassified | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Duval | Diner | 1 | 31.8% | running 1.7x the typical summer rate |
| Duval | Pizza | 4 | -20.9% | running 1.3x the typical summer rate |
| Marion | Unclassified | 7 | -26.8% | running 1.2x the typical summer rate |
| Dade | Seafood | 2 | 56.8% | running 1.1x the typical summer rate |
| Duval | American | 1 | -34.1% | running 1.0x the typical summer rate |
| Duval | Ice Cream | 3 | -34.1% | running 1.0x the typical summer rate |
| Orange | Diner | 1 | -34.1% | running 1.0x the typical summer rate |
County acceleration map
County polygons are loaded from Census-derived public boundary data; centroid markers appear if that asset is unavailable.
Methodology
For every cuisine-county combo with sufficient history, RiskyEats builds monthly closure-rate series from January 2014 through April 2026. The peer-comparison label compares the forecast summer average with the prior summer baseline and historical summer variation. Production intent is Forecasting NIM on TYPHON:8081; this render remains shippable with a local seasonal fallback when output/tse_forecasts.parquet has not landed.
Disclaimer: forecasts are not closure determinations. Intervals widen with horizon, sparse counties are noisier, and counts may revise when DBPR or external place-status records refresh.