Orange American
running 5.6x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 3 closures · 170.5% vs summer 2025
Forecasting NIM output was present and this page can be reconciled with output/tse_forecasts.parquet.
Projected summer closures239
Summer 2025 closures836
Acceleration-71.4%
Ranked cuisine-county combos50
Metro callouts
Miami
Lounge closures projected to climb 5.1% above last summer
Driven by Dade; forecast summer count 4 vs 4 in summer 2025.
Ft. LauderdaleSeafood closures projected to climb -64.5% above last summer
Driven by Broward; forecast summer count 12 vs 33 in summer 2025.
West Palm BeachPizza closures projected to climb -46.5% above last summer
Driven by Palm Beach; forecast summer count 10 vs 19 in summer 2025.
OrlandoAmerican closures projected to climb -55.1% above last summer
Driven by Orange; forecast summer count 31 vs 68 in summer 2025.
Tampa BayHotel closures projected to climb -63.6% above last summer
Driven by Pinellas; forecast summer count 19 vs 52 in summer 2025.
JacksonvilleRestaurant closures projected to climb -64.7% above last summer
Driven by Duval; forecast summer count 12 vs 33 in summer 2025.
Southwest FloridaIce Cream closures projected to climb 6.8% above last summer
Driven by Lee; forecast summer count 1 vs 1 in summer 2025.
North FloridaUnclassified closures projected to climb -57.2% above last summer
Driven by Marion; forecast summer count 3 vs 6 in summer 2025.
Top 20 accelerating cuisine x county closures
Brevard Pizza
running 3.8x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 2 closures · 88.6% vs summer 2025
Volusia Pizza
running 3.8x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 2 closures · 88.6% vs summer 2025
Palm Beach Pizza
running 2.0x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 2 closures · 138.6% vs summer 2025
Pinellas Hotel
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 100.0% vs summer 2025
Dade Lounge
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 100.0% vs summer 2025
Dade Argentine Steak
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Dade Desserts
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Brevard Fast Food
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Pasco Ice Cream
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Seminole Pizza
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Lee Ice Cream
running 1.9x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 6.8% vs summer 2025
Broward Seafood
running 1.7x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · 31.8% vs summer 2025
Orange Cafe
running 1.3x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 2 closures · -20.5% vs summer 2025
Pinellas Cafe
running 1.0x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · -34.1% vs summer 2025
Citrus Unclassified
running 1.0x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · -34.1% vs summer 2025
Volusia Fast Food
running 1.0x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · -34.1% vs summer 2025
Pinellas Pizza
running 1.0x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 1 closures · -34.1% vs summer 2025
Orange Diner
running 0.7x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 2 closures · -47.7% vs summer 2025
Broward Juice/Smoothie
running 0.7x the typical summer rate · summer forecast 2 closures · -47.7% vs summer 2025
| County | Cuisine | Forecast summer closures | Acceleration | Peer comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange | American | 3 | 170.5% | running 5.6x the typical summer rate |
| Brevard | Pizza | 2 | 88.6% | running 3.8x the typical summer rate |
| Volusia | Pizza | 2 | 88.6% | running 3.8x the typical summer rate |
| Palm Beach | Pizza | 2 | 138.6% | running 2.0x the typical summer rate |
| Pinellas | Hotel | 1 | 100.0% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Dade | Lounge | 1 | 100.0% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Dade | Argentine Steak | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Dade | Desserts | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Brevard | Fast Food | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Pasco | Ice Cream | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Seminole | Pizza | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Lee | Ice Cream | 1 | 6.8% | running 1.9x the typical summer rate |
| Broward | Seafood | 1 | 31.8% | running 1.7x the typical summer rate |
| Orange | Cafe | 2 | -20.5% | running 1.3x the typical summer rate |
| Pinellas | Cafe | 1 | -34.1% | running 1.0x the typical summer rate |
| Citrus | Unclassified | 1 | -34.1% | running 1.0x the typical summer rate |
| Volusia | Fast Food | 1 | -34.1% | running 1.0x the typical summer rate |
| Pinellas | Pizza | 1 | -34.1% | running 1.0x the typical summer rate |
| Orange | Diner | 2 | -47.7% | running 0.7x the typical summer rate |
| Broward | Juice/Smoothie | 2 | -47.7% | running 0.7x the typical summer rate |
County acceleration map
County polygons are loaded from Census-derived public boundary data; centroid markers appear if that asset is unavailable.
Methodology
For every cuisine-county combo with sufficient history, RiskyEats builds monthly closure-rate series from January 2014 through April 2026. The peer-comparison label compares the forecast summer average with the prior summer baseline and historical summer variation. Production intent is Forecasting NIM on CERBERUS:8003; this render remains shippable with a local seasonal fallback when output/tse_forecasts.parquet has not landed.
Disclaimer: forecasts are not closure determinations. Intervals widen with horizon, sparse counties are noisier, and counts may revise when DBPR or external place-status records refresh.