Hostile Cities - RiskyEats FRI

Default window2014-01-01 to 2025-12-31

Ranked cities50

Excluded cities676

Sample guard30 active / 10 closures

Window comparison

Window	Dates	Ranked cities	Excluded cities	Median rate	Overture divisions
full-corpus	2014-01-01 to 2025-12-31	50	676	5.3%	yes
5-year	2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31	37	688	4.5%	yes
3-year	2023-01-01 to 2025-12-31	31	694	4.3%	yes
covid-era	2020-01-01 to 2022-12-31	4	669	1.0%	yes
post-covid	2023-01-01 to 2025-12-31	31	694	4.3%	yes

full-corpus operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile
Coral Springs	8	top_quartile	22	7.1%	1.11	85.7
Boca Raton	21	middle	40	5.5%	0.11	59.2
Delray Beach	10	top_quartile	27	7.1%	1.08	81.6
Pompano Beach	23	middle	22	5.4%	0.09	55.1

5-year operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile
Coral Springs	6	top_quartile	19	6.2%	1.13	86.1
Boca Raton	21	middle	32	4.4%	-0.05	44.4
Delray Beach	14	middle	19	5.0%	0.35	63.9
Pompano Beach	19	middle	18	4.5%	0.00	50.0

3-year operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile
Coral Springs	21	middle	11	3.6%	-0.47	33.3
Boca Raton	17	middle	30	4.1%	-0.12	46.7
Delray Beach	12	middle	18	4.7%	0.29	63.3
Pompano Beach	15	middle	18	4.5%	0.12	53.3

covid-era operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile	Exclusion
Coral Springs	excluded (9 by rate)	excluded	8	2.9%	2.57	98.8	fewer than 10 unified-closure events
Boca Raton	excluded (67 by rate)	excluded	2	0.3%	-0.90	90.2	fewer than 10 unified-closure events
Delray Beach	excluded (68 by rate)	excluded	1	0.3%	-0.92	90.0	fewer than 10 unified-closure events
Pompano Beach	excluded (501 by rate)	excluded	0	0.0%	-1.34	25.6	fewer than 10 unified-closure events

post-covid operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile
Coral Springs	21	middle	11	3.6%	-0.47	33.3
Boca Raton	17	middle	30	4.1%	-0.12	46.7
Delray Beach	12	middle	18	4.7%	0.29	63.3
Pompano Beach	15	middle	18	4.5%	0.12	53.3

Full-corpus ranked cities

Rank	City	Active at start	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile	p-value
1	Fort Lauderdale	1,102	98	8.9%	2.17	100.0	0.0000
2	Oakland Park	193	17	8.8%	2.12	98.0	0.0101
3	Fort Myers	1,151	101	8.8%	2.10	95.9	0.0000
4	Miami	4,962	417	8.4%	1.87	93.9	0.0000
5	Naples	1,109	88	7.9%	1.59	91.8	0.0000
6	Sunrise	322	25	7.8%	1.49	89.8	0.0143
7	Sarasota	974	72	7.4%	1.26	87.8	0.0002
8	Coral Springs	308	22	7.1%	1.11	85.7	0.0593
9	Miami Beach	730	52	7.1%	1.10	83.7	0.0039
10	Delray Beach	381	27	7.1%	1.08	81.6	0.0406
11	Orlando	4,532	321	7.1%	1.08	79.6	0.0000
12	Punta Gorda	147	10	6.8%	0.91	77.6	0.2675
13	Jacksonville	2,879	193	6.7%	0.85	75.5	0.0000
14	Oviedo	172	11	6.4%	0.66	73.5	0.3419
15	West Palm Beach	865	55	6.4%	0.64	71.4	0.0364
16	Bradenton	713	45	6.3%	0.61	69.4	0.0660
17	Key West	395	24	6.1%	0.47	67.3	0.2517
18	Tampa	2,896	171	5.9%	0.37	65.3	0.0063
19	Miramar	194	11	5.7%	0.23	63.3	0.5905
20	Davie	247	14	5.7%	0.23	61.2	0.5446
21	Boca Raton	730	40	5.5%	0.11	59.2	0.4196
22	North Fort Myers	201	11	5.5%	0.11	57.1	0.6766
23	Pompano Beach	404	22	5.4%	0.09	55.1	0.5708
24	Kissimmee	1,030	55	5.3%	0.03	53.1	0.4529
25	Orange Park	188	10	5.3%	0.02	51.0	0.7602
26	Sanford	266	14	5.3%	-0.02	49.0	0.7485
27	Largo	267	14	5.2%	-0.03	46.9	0.7595
28	Gainesville	592	31	5.2%	-0.03	44.9	0.6533
29	Hollywood	460	23	5.0%	-0.18	42.9	0.8742
30	Ocala	720	36	5.0%	-0.18	40.8	0.8426
31	Port Charlotte	264	13	4.9%	-0.22	38.8	0.9503
32	Plantation	227	11	4.8%	-0.27	36.7	0.9979
33	Stuart	301	14	4.7%	-0.38	34.7	0.8770
34	Doral	287	13	4.5%	-0.46	32.7	0.8047
35	Jupiter	243	11	4.5%	-0.46	30.6	0.8185
36	Coral Gables	260	11	4.2%	-0.64	28.6	0.6453
37	Boynton Beach	358	15	4.2%	-0.66	26.5	0.5642
38	Pembroke Pines	383	16	4.2%	-0.67	24.5	0.5433
39	Cape Coral	409	17	4.2%	-0.68	22.4	0.5168
40	Lake Worth Beach	302	12	4.0%	-0.79	20.4	0.4808
41	Hialeah	696	27	3.9%	-0.85	18.4	0.2339
42	Lake Buena Vista	291	11	3.8%	-0.91	16.3	0.3975
43	Daytona Beach	422	15	3.6%	-1.04	14.3	0.2162
44	Winter Park	286	10	3.5%	-1.08	12.2	0.2879
45	St. Augustine	611	21	3.4%	-1.12	10.2	0.1039
46	St. Petersburg	903	31	3.4%	-1.12	8.2	0.0468
47	Lakeland	633	21	3.3%	-1.19	6.1	0.0724
48	Clearwater	606	20	3.3%	-1.20	4.1	0.0755
49	Melbourne	495	13	2.6%	-1.60	2.0	0.0211
50	Port St. Lucie	470	11	2.3%	-1.77	0.0	0.0112

Full-corpus kill-zone neighborhoods

Rank	Division	City	Active	Closures	Rate
1	Atlantic Beach	Jacksonville	43	24	55.8%
2	Aventura	Miami	68	12	17.6%
3	Coral Springs	Coral Springs	225	21	9.3%
4	Sunrise	Sunrise	185	13	7.0%
5	Doral	Doral	190	12	6.3%
6	Davie	Davie	176	10	5.7%
7	Pembroke Pines	Pembroke Pines	304	16	5.3%
8	Hialeah	Hialeah	240	12	5.0%
9	Hollywood	Hollywood	283	12	4.2%

Population density uses U.S. Census Bureau 2020 city/place population. City claims use Wilson 95% intervals and Mann-Whitney U p-values.

Top 20 oversaturated cuisines statewide

Rank	Cuisine	Licenses	Closures	Rate	Vs median	Z	p-value
1	Sandwiches	1,615	208	12.9%	2.92x	3.52	0.3067
2	Desserts	2,053	212	10.3%	2.34x	2.46	1.0000
3	Fast Food	3,520	330	9.4%	2.13x	2.06	1.0000
4	Sports Bar	614	40	6.5%	1.48x	0.87	1.0000
5	Cafe	2,470	156	6.3%	1.43x	0.79	1.0000
6	Cocktail Bar	255	16	6.3%	1.42x	0.77	1.0000
7	Juice/Smoothie	495	31	6.3%	1.42x	0.77	1.0000
8	Health Food	459	25	5.4%	1.23x	0.43	0.6856
9	Latin American	314	15	4.8%	1.08x	0.15	1.0000
10	Cuban	477	22	4.6%	1.05x	0.08	0.1311
11	Bagels	239	11	4.6%	1.04x	0.08	1.0000
12	Bakery	875	39	4.5%	1.01x	0.02	0.0008
13	Burgers	1,247	55	4.4%	1.00x	0.00	0.0720
14	Deli	390	17	4.4%	0.99x	-0.02	0.0002
15	American	1,862	80	4.3%	0.97x	-0.05	0.1877
16	Italian & Pizza	4,473	189	4.2%	0.96x	-0.08	0.0000
17	Lounge	529	22	4.2%	0.94x	-0.10	0.0255
18	Diner	2,288	89	3.9%	0.88x	-0.22	0.0000
19	Seafood	1,553	60	3.9%	0.88x	-0.23	0.0006
20	Bar	2,010	76	3.8%	0.86x	-0.26	0.0014

1 cuisines passed Holm-adjusted p<0.05; the table still shows the top raw statewide rates.

Retail Rebrand Hot Spots

Rank	Cuisine	Supertransition addresses	Total addresses	Rate	Rate rank
1	American	29	1,731	1.7%	3
2	Mexican	27	1,772	1.5%	4
3	Bar	25	1,832	1.4%	5
4	Italian & Pizza	22	4,271	0.5%	9
5	Cafe	12	2,384	0.5%	10
6	Japanese, Thai & Sushi	12	1,849	0.6%	8
7	Bakery	10	851	1.2%	6
8	Diner	10	2,206	0.5%	12
9	Fast Food	10	3,485	0.3%	16
10	Desserts	9	1,933	0.5%	11
11	Cuban	8	467	1.7%	2
12	Latin American	6	293	2.0%	1
13	Sandwiches	6	1,540	0.4%	14
14	Seafood	6	1,460	0.4%	13
15	Chinese	5	1,338	0.4%	15
16	Juice/Smoothie	5	479	1.0%	7

701 addresses have at least 3 distinct DBAs in the inspection history; 255 resolve to a current cuisine.

Per-metro cuisine callouts

Metro	Closure-rate axis	Retail-rebrand axis
Florida Keys	Desserts in Islamorada (66.7% vs 10.3% statewide), Cocktail Bar in Key West (33.3% vs 6.3% statewide), Italian & Pizza in Key West (26.7% vs 4.2% statewide)	Bar in Key West (1 rebrand addresses, 3.6%), Cafe in Marathon (1 rebrand addresses, 20.0%), Seafood in Tavernier (1 rebrand addresses, 25.0%)
Fort Lauderdale	Bagels in Sunrise (66.7% vs 4.6% statewide), Sandwiches in Cooper City (66.7% vs 12.9% statewide), Sandwiches in Deerfield Beach (57.1% vs 12.9% statewide)	Desserts in Coral Springs (1 rebrand addresses, 4.5%), Bar in Fort Lauderdale (2 rebrand addresses, 4.1%), Deli in Fort Lauderdale (1 rebrand addresses, 7.7%)
Jacksonville	Chinese in Middleburg (33.3% vs 3.1% statewide), Seafood in Ponte Vedra Beach (33.3% vs 3.9% statewide), Sandwiches in St. Augustine (40.0% vs 12.9% statewide)	Bar in Amelia Island (1 rebrand addresses, 33.3%), American in Jacksonville (2 rebrand addresses, 2.2%), Mexican in Jacksonville (2 rebrand addresses, 2.0%)
Miami	Australian in Miami (100.0% vs 35.1% statewide), Sandwiches in Aventura (50.0% vs 12.9% statewide), Asian in Aventura (33.3% vs 3.3% statewide)	Diner in Aventura (1 rebrand addresses, 10.0%), Bakery in Coral Gables (2 rebrand addresses, 16.7%), Latin American in Hialeah (1 rebrand addresses, 6.2%)
North Florida	Cuban in Ocala (50.0% vs 4.6% statewide), Wine Bar in Gainesville (33.3% vs 1.6% statewide), Asian in Gainesville (33.3% vs 3.3% statewide)	American in Alachua (1 rebrand addresses, 33.3%), American in Gainesville (1 rebrand addresses, 7.1%), Japanese, Thai & Sushi in Gainesville (1 rebrand addresses, 3.8%)
Orlando	Burgers in Cocoa (66.7% vs 4.4% statewide), Sandwiches in Sanford (71.4% vs 12.9% statewide), Sandwiches in Lady Lake (60.0% vs 12.9% statewide)	Fast Food in Altamonte Springs (1 rebrand addresses, 5.6%), Seafood in Apopka (1 rebrand addresses, 33.3%), Cafe in Auburndale (1 rebrand addresses, 20.0%)
Southwest Florida	Sandwiches in Punta Gorda (100.0% vs 12.9% statewide), Juice/Smoothie in Naples (61.5% vs 6.3% statewide), Sandwiches in Englewood (66.7% vs 12.9% statewide)	American in Bradenton (1 rebrand addresses, 5.3%), Mexican in Bradenton (1 rebrand addresses, 4.3%), Bar in Fort Myers (3 rebrand addresses, 8.1%)
Tampa Bay	Burgers in Spring Hill (83.3% vs 4.4% statewide), Australian in Tampa (100.0% vs 35.1% statewide), Juice/Smoothie in Brandon (50.0% vs 6.3% statewide)	Mexican in Brooksville (1 rebrand addresses, 20.0%), Cafe in Brooksville (1 rebrand addresses, 7.1%), American in Clearwater (1 rebrand addresses, 4.5%)
Treasure Coast	Desserts in Stuart (38.5% vs 10.3% statewide), Health Food in Stuart (33.3% vs 5.4% statewide), Burgers in Port St. Lucie (28.6% vs 4.4% statewide)	Italian & Pizza in Fort Pierce (2 rebrand addresses, 11.8%), Seafood in Fort Pierce (1 rebrand addresses, 11.1%), Diner in Fort Pierce (1 rebrand addresses, 8.3%)
West Palm Beach	Chicken in Delray Beach (50.0% vs 3.3% statewide), Sandwiches in Jupiter (57.1% vs 12.9% statewide), Sandwiches in Delray Beach (55.6% vs 12.9% statewide)	Fast Food in Boca Raton (1 rebrand addresses, 3.8%), Cafe in Boca Raton (1 rebrand addresses, 2.1%), Japanese, Thai & Sushi in Boca Raton (1 rebrand addresses, 1.8%)

County retail-rebrand callouts

Palm Beach: Bar leads retail-rebrand turnover (4 supertransition addresses out of 128), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Dade: American leads retail-rebrand turnover (5 supertransition addresses out of 160), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Broward: American leads retail-rebrand turnover (3 supertransition addresses out of 122), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Orange: Mexican leads retail-rebrand turnover (6 supertransition addresses out of 144), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Hillsborough: American leads retail-rebrand turnover (4 supertransition addresses out of 111), while its closure axis is 7.8% closure rate.
Pinellas: American leads retail-rebrand turnover (2 supertransition addresses out of 95), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Duval: American leads retail-rebrand turnover (2 supertransition addresses out of 101), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Lee: Bar leads retail-rebrand turnover (3 supertransition addresses out of 87), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.