Hostile Cities - RiskyEats FRI

Default window2014-01-01 to 2025-12-31

Ranked cities62

Excluded cities660

Sample guard30 active / 10 closures

Window comparison

Window	Dates	Ranked cities	Excluded cities	Median rate	Overture divisions
full-corpus	2014-01-01 to 2025-12-31	62	660	6.9%	yes
5-year	2020-01-01 to 2025-12-31	51	670	6.0%	yes
3-year	2023-01-01 to 2025-12-31	50	649	6.0%	yes
covid-era	2020-01-01 to 2022-12-31	4	661	1.0%	yes
post-covid	2023-01-01 to 2025-12-31	50	649	6.0%	yes

full-corpus operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile
Coral Springs	19	middle	26	8.4%	0.60	70.5
Boca Raton	30	middle	50	7.1%	0.09	52.5
Delray Beach	16	top_quartile	32	8.6%	0.66	75.4
Pompano Beach	26	middle	29	7.5%	0.23	59.0

5-year operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile
Coral Springs	16	middle	23	7.4%	0.56	70.0
Boca Raton	27	middle	42	6.0%	-0.01	48.0
Delray Beach	24	middle	24	6.4%	0.15	54.0
Pompano Beach	23	middle	25	6.5%	0.17	56.0

3-year operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile
Coral Springs	33	middle	15	5.1%	-0.32	34.7
Boca Raton	25	middle	40	6.0%	0.00	51.0
Delray Beach	23	middle	23	6.3%	0.13	55.1
Pompano Beach	21	middle	25	6.6%	0.22	59.2

covid-era operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile	Exclusion
Coral Springs	excluded (10 by rate)	excluded	8	3.1%	2.99	98.6	fewer than 10 unified-closure events
Boca Raton	excluded (65 by rate)	excluded	2	0.4%	-0.91	90.4	fewer than 10 unified-closure events
Delray Beach	excluded (67 by rate)	excluded	1	0.3%	-0.93	90.1	fewer than 10 unified-closure events
Pompano Beach	excluded (493 by rate)	excluded	0	0.0%	-1.41	25.9	fewer than 10 unified-closure events

post-covid operator-prediction validation

City	Rank	Bucket	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile
Coral Springs	33	middle	15	5.1%	-0.32	34.7
Boca Raton	25	middle	40	6.0%	0.00	51.0
Delray Beach	23	middle	23	6.3%	0.13	55.1
Pompano Beach	21	middle	25	6.6%	0.22	59.2

Full-corpus ranked cities

Rank	City	Active at start	Closures	Rate	Z	Percentile	p-value
1	North Port	91	15	16.5%	3.77	100.0	0.0001
2	Fort Myers	1,099	156	14.2%	2.87	98.4	0.0000
3	Punta Gorda	148	17	11.5%	1.81	96.7	0.0142
4	Miami	4,773	516	10.8%	1.54	95.1	0.0000
5	Sunrise	308	32	10.4%	1.38	93.4	0.0057
6	Oakland Park	194	20	10.3%	1.34	91.8	0.0320
7	Lehigh Acres	117	12	10.3%	1.32	90.2	0.1008
8	Naples	1,068	108	10.1%	1.27	88.5	0.0000
9	Weston	115	11	9.6%	1.05	86.9	0.1848
10	Sarasota	966	92	9.5%	1.04	85.2	0.0001
11	Bradenton	662	63	9.5%	1.03	83.6	0.0017
12	Fort Lauderdale	1,085	102	9.4%	0.99	82.0	0.0001
13	Jacksonville	2,770	252	9.1%	0.87	80.3	0.0000
14	North Fort Myers	172	15	8.7%	0.72	78.7	0.2406
15	West Palm Beach	804	69	8.6%	0.67	77.0	0.0168
16	Delray Beach	374	32	8.6%	0.66	75.4	0.1088
17	Orlando	4,270	365	8.5%	0.65	73.8	0.0000
18	Sebring	129	11	8.5%	0.65	72.1	0.3542
19	Coral Springs	309	26	8.4%	0.60	70.5	0.1752
20	Miramar	192	15	7.8%	0.37	68.9	0.4659
21	Hialeah	674	52	7.7%	0.33	67.2	0.2045
22	Davie	249	19	7.6%	0.29	65.6	0.4752
23	Key West	384	29	7.6%	0.26	63.9	0.4092
24	Miami Beach	734	55	7.5%	0.24	62.3	0.2803
25	Orange Park	187	14	7.5%	0.24	60.7	0.5901
26	Pompano Beach	389	29	7.5%	0.23	59.0	0.4515
27	Plantation	217	16	7.4%	0.19	57.4	0.6082
28	Gainesville	567	41	7.2%	0.14	55.7	0.4881
29	Port Charlotte	251	18	7.2%	0.11	54.1	0.6733
30	Boca Raton	704	50	7.1%	0.09	52.5	0.5260
31	Tampa	2,699	187	6.9%	0.02	50.8	0.3737
32	Hollywood	454	31	6.8%	-0.02	49.2	0.7867
33	Stuart	294	20	6.8%	-0.03	47.5	0.8417
34	Sanford	250	17	6.8%	-0.03	45.9	0.8553
35	Lauderhill	149	10	6.7%	-0.07	44.3	0.9229
36	Doral	286	19	6.6%	-0.09	42.6	0.9303
37	Oviedo	169	11	6.5%	-0.14	41.0	0.9970
38	Ocala	699	45	6.4%	-0.17	39.3	0.9328
39	North Miami Beach	172	11	6.4%	-0.19	37.7	0.9488
40	Boynton Beach	346	22	6.4%	-0.20	36.1	0.9051
41	Venice	221	14	6.3%	-0.21	34.4	0.9129
42	Lake Worth Beach	287	18	6.3%	-0.24	32.8	0.8665
43	Largo	241	15	6.2%	-0.26	31.1	0.8540
44	Kissimmee	943	58	6.2%	-0.29	29.5	0.6466
45	Cape Coral	400	23	5.8%	-0.44	27.9	0.5333
46	Pembroke Pines	380	21	5.5%	-0.53	26.2	0.4329
47	Jupiter	241	13	5.4%	-0.58	24.6	0.4795
48	Miami Gardens	187	10	5.3%	-0.60	23.0	0.5167
49	Spring Hill	192	10	5.2%	-0.65	21.3	0.4621
50	Winter Garden	195	10	5.1%	-0.69	19.7	0.4315
51	Coral Gables	256	13	5.1%	-0.71	18.0	0.3502
52	Lutz	199	10	5.0%	-0.73	16.4	0.3933
53	Clearwater	580	27	4.7%	-0.87	14.8	0.0680
54	St. Petersburg	846	38	4.5%	-0.94	13.1	0.0162
55	Daytona Beach	403	17	4.2%	-1.04	11.5	0.0607
56	Lake Buena Vista	294	12	4.1%	-1.10	9.8	0.0900
57	Winter Haven	299	12	4.0%	-1.12	8.2	0.0788
58	Winter Park	269	10	3.7%	-1.24	6.6	0.0623
59	Lakeland	597	21	3.5%	-1.32	4.9	0.0028
60	St. Augustine	605	21	3.5%	-1.34	3.3	0.0023
61	Melbourne	481	15	3.1%	-1.47	1.6	0.0024
62	Port St. Lucie	451	12	2.7%	-1.65	0.0	0.0009

Full-corpus kill-zone neighborhoods

Rank	Division	City	Active	Closures	Rate
1	Atlantic Beach	Jacksonville	43	24	55.8%
2	Pinellas Park	Clearwater	33	11	33.3%
3	Aventura	Miami	62	11	17.7%
4	Coral Springs	Coral Springs	226	22	9.7%
5	Sunrise	Sunrise	183	17	9.3%
6	Miramar	Miramar	126	10	7.9%
7	Hialeah	Hialeah	241	19	7.9%
8	Doral	Doral	193	15	7.8%
9	Davie	Davie	175	12	6.9%
10	Pembroke Pines	Pembroke Pines	306	20	6.5%
11	Hollywood	Hollywood	282	14	5.0%

Population density uses U.S. Census Bureau 2020 city/place population. City claims use Wilson 95% intervals and Mann-Whitney U p-values.

Top 20 oversaturated cuisines statewide

Rank	Cuisine	Licenses	Closures	Rate	Vs median	Z	p-value
1	Donuts	242	97	40.1%	6.36x	5.85	0.0054
2	Sandwiches	1,432	190	13.3%	2.11x	1.21	1.0000
3	Fast Food	3,299	350	10.6%	1.68x	0.75	0.9274
4	Desserts	247	24	9.7%	1.54x	0.59	1.0000
5	Ice Cream	970	91	9.4%	1.49x	0.53	1.0000
6	Lounge	288	27	9.4%	1.49x	0.53	1.0000
7	Bakery	671	61	9.1%	1.44x	0.48	0.0000
8	Juice/Smoothie	387	35	9.0%	1.43x	0.47	1.0000
9	Jamaican	119	10	8.4%	1.33x	0.36	1.0000
10	Burgers	946	79	8.4%	1.33x	0.35	1.0000
11	Burritos	195	16	8.2%	1.30x	0.33	1.0000
12	Event Catering	135	11	8.1%	1.29x	0.32	1.0000
13	Pub	268	20	7.5%	1.18x	0.20	1.0000
14	Cafe	1,914	132	6.9%	1.09x	0.10	1.0000
15	American	741	50	6.7%	1.07x	0.08	1.0000
16	Sports Bar	578	39	6.7%	1.07x	0.08	1.0000
17	Food Truck	179	12	6.7%	1.06x	0.07	1.0000
18	Cocktail Bar	263	17	6.5%	1.03x	0.03	1.0000
19	Brunch	743	47	6.3%	1.00x	0.00	0.0001
20	Latin American	238	15	6.3%	1.00x	0.00	1.0000

3 cuisines passed Holm-adjusted p<0.05; the table still shows the top raw statewide rates.

Retail Rebrand Hot Spots

Rank	Cuisine	Supertransition addresses	Total addresses	Rate	Rate rank
1	Fast Food	176	3,229	5.5%	72
2	Pizza	173	3,032	5.7%	69
3	Bar	157	1,525	10.3%	30
4	Cafe	124	1,830	6.8%	59
5	Restaurant	120	911	13.2%	16
6	Diner	119	1,354	8.8%	43
7	Hotel	109	1,136	9.6%	35
8	Seafood	90	1,298	6.9%	56
9	American	83	671	12.4%	20
10	Tacos	71	653	10.9%	28
11	Mexican	60	731	8.2%	48
12	Sushi	56	1,097	5.1%	75
13	Sandwiches	49	1,344	3.6%	80
14	Burgers	46	932	4.9%	76
15	Brunch	45	724	6.2%	64
16	Bakery	40	645	6.2%	65
17	Chinese	39	1,166	3.3%	83
18	Resort	39	251	15.5%	6
19	Cuban	37	406	9.1%	40
20	Ice Cream	33	916	3.6%	81

5,003 addresses have at least 3 distinct DBAs in the inspection history; 2,673 resolve to a current cuisine.

Per-metro cuisine callouts

Metro	Closure-rate axis	Retail-rebrand axis
Florida Keys	Mexican in Key West (33.3% vs 5.3% statewide), Japanese in Key West (33.3% vs 6.0% statewide), Diner in Key West (30.0% vs 3.6% statewide)	Bar in Islamorada (2 rebrand addresses, 25.0%), Bar in Key Largo (1 rebrand addresses, 20.0%), Fast Food in Key Largo (1 rebrand addresses, 20.0%)
Fort Lauderdale	Sandwiches in Plantation (75.0% vs 13.3% statewide), Donuts in Coral Springs (100.0% vs 40.1% statewide), Donuts in Fort Lauderdale (100.0% vs 40.1% statewide)	Pizza in Coconut Creek (2 rebrand addresses, 28.6%), Chinese in Coconut Creek (1 rebrand addresses, 25.0%), Fast Food in Coral Springs (4 rebrand addresses, 16.0%)
Jacksonville	Burgers in Jacksonville (40.3% vs 8.4% statewide), Hotel in Palatka (33.3% vs 4.7% statewide), Chinese in Middleburg (33.3% vs 4.7% statewide)	Sandwiches in Atlantic Beach (1 rebrand addresses, 25.0%), Fast Food in East Palatka (1 rebrand addresses, 33.3%), Mexican in Fernandina Beach (1 rebrand addresses, 33.3%)
Miami	Resort in Miami (66.7% vs 4.6% statewide), Australian Steak in Miami (100.0% vs 40.6% statewide), Bar in Doral (60.0% vs 4.9% statewide)	Pizza in Aventura (1 rebrand addresses, 25.0%), Cafe in Aventura (1 rebrand addresses, 11.1%), Cafe in Coral Gables (3 rebrand addresses, 13.0%)
North Florida	Cuban in Ocala (66.7% vs 5.9% statewide), Brunch in Ocala (45.5% vs 6.3% statewide), Wine Bar in Gainesville (33.3% vs 3.6% statewide)	Hotel in Alachua (1 rebrand addresses, 25.0%), Fast Food in Belleview (1 rebrand addresses, 12.5%), Fast Food in Chiefland (1 rebrand addresses, 20.0%)
Orlando	Wings in Lakeland (66.7% vs 2.5% statewide), Sandwiches in Lady Lake (75.0% vs 13.3% statewide), Donuts in Lakeland (100.0% vs 40.1% statewide)	Chicken in Altamonte Springs (1 rebrand addresses, 20.0%), Cafe in Auburndale (1 rebrand addresses, 25.0%), Bar in Cape Canaveral (1 rebrand addresses, 33.3%)
Southwest Florida	Desserts in Sarasota (100.0% vs 9.7% statewide), Sandwiches in Punta Gorda (100.0% vs 13.3% statewide), Juice/Smoothie in Naples (80.0% vs 9.0% statewide)	Beach in Bonita Springs (2 rebrand addresses, 66.7%), Sushi in Bonita Springs (1 rebrand addresses, 12.5%), Bar in Bonita Springs (1 rebrand addresses, 9.1%)
Tampa Bay	Performing Arts in St. Petersburg (100.0% vs 15.5% statewide), Sushi in St. Petersburg (75.0% vs 3.7% statewide), Burgers in Spring Hill (71.4% vs 8.4% statewide)	Golf Course in Belleair (3 rebrand addresses, 100.0%), Pizza in Beverly Hills (1 rebrand addresses, 33.3%), Pizza in Brandon (3 rebrand addresses, 16.7%)
Treasure Coast	Donuts in Stuart (100.0% vs 40.1% statewide), Burgers in Port St. Lucie (50.0% vs 8.4% statewide), Pizza in Hobe Sound (33.3% vs 5.7% statewide)	Diner in Fort Pierce (3 rebrand addresses, 25.0%), Mexican in Fort Pierce (2 rebrand addresses, 33.3%), Bar in Fort Pierce (2 rebrand addresses, 28.6%)
West Palm Beach	Pizza in Tequesta (66.7% vs 5.7% statewide), Sandwiches in Boca Raton (70.0% vs 13.3% statewide), Salad Bar in West Palm Beach (50.0% vs 6.2% statewide)	Pizza in Boca Raton (5 rebrand addresses, 10.9%), American in Boca Raton (3 rebrand addresses, 21.4%), Tacos in Boca Raton (2 rebrand addresses, 66.7%)

County retail-rebrand callouts

Palm Beach: Bar leads retail-rebrand turnover (17 supertransition addresses out of 120), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Dade: Restaurant leads retail-rebrand turnover (33 supertransition addresses out of 197), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Broward: Pizza leads retail-rebrand turnover (19 supertransition addresses out of 260), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Orange: Bar leads retail-rebrand turnover (21 supertransition addresses out of 152), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Hillsborough: Pizza leads retail-rebrand turnover (14 supertransition addresses out of 220), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Pinellas: Cafe leads retail-rebrand turnover (13 supertransition addresses out of 96), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.
Duval: Fast Food leads retail-rebrand turnover (17 supertransition addresses out of 190), while its closure axis is 19.4% closure rate.
Lee: Bar leads retail-rebrand turnover (7 supertransition addresses out of 71), while its closure axis is outside the top closure-rate cuisines.