By RiskyEats / FRI Editorial Desk
Composite SPI26 of 100
Factors7
Regulatory pressure score39 of 100
Standing closure-status load5.8%
Monthly closure-status records864
The composite SPI score for the current quarter is 26 of 100. That score is built from seven stacked pressures: regulatory pressure, labor, tourism, seasonal volatility, cost, concept saturation, rent. Regulatory pressure (39) is the only factor with a live Phase 2 ORSM feed; the other six use transparent proxies until external data integrations land.
Because this is a pressure index, not a closure list, the signal is strongest when several factors point in the same direction. Florida's standing closure-status load is 5.8%, while June 2026 alone added 864 closure-status records and 371 ownership-change filings.
Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet (Phase 2), output/licenses_hr.parquet, output/inspections.parquet, output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json.
Regulatory Pressure - 39 of 100
Regulatory pressure is fed by the live Phase 2 ORSM baseline: 4,437 of 101,174 ORSM-scored licenses in high/elevated bands (4.4%), emergency-order rate 2.3%. This is the only SPI factor with a live Phase 2 data feed rather than a proxy estimate.
The named case to keep this concrete is SWEET BABY RAYS CHICKEN in Jacksonville, and TACO BELL #042908 in Miami. It does not prove the factor by itself; it shows the kind of record that moves inside the factor when the broader pressure is visible in license, ownership, inspection, or address-churn data.
Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet (Phase 2 ORSM baseline).
Labor - 31 of 100
Labor feed is not present in output, so this brief uses the closest current public-record signal. The quarter's labor score is 31 of 100 because the proxy reads 371 ownership-change approvals in June 2026, equal to 0.6% of the active base.
The named case to keep this concrete is GG'S OF NEW YORK in North Lauderdale, and TROPICAL SMOOTHIE CAFE in Neptune Beach. It does not prove the factor by itself; it shows the kind of record that moves inside the factor when the broader pressure is visible in license, ownership, inspection, or address-churn data.
Source dataset: output/licenses_hr.parquet, output/ownership_changes.parquet, output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, output/inspections.parquet.
Tourism - 33 of 100
Tourism feed is not present in output, so this brief uses the closest current public-record signal. The quarter's tourism score is 33 of 100 because the proxy reads tourism-heavy metro monthly closure-status pressure peaked at 2.6% in the displayed metro set.
The named case to keep this concrete is MAMA'S KITCHEN & CATERING in Goulds, and RINCON PORTENO in Miami. It does not prove the factor by itself; it shows the kind of record that moves inside the factor when the broader pressure is visible in license, ownership, inspection, or address-churn data.
Source dataset: output/licenses_hr.parquet, output/ownership_changes.parquet, output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, output/inspections.parquet.
Seasonal Volatility - 0 of 100
Seasonal Volatility feed is not present in output, so this brief uses the closest current public-record signal. The quarter's seasonal volatility score is 0 of 100 because the proxy reads 0 quarter-to-date closure-status records through June 2026, versus 1,223 in the prior full quarter.
The named case to keep this concrete is MAMA'S KITCHEN & CATERING in Goulds, and RINCON PORTENO in Miami. It does not prove the factor by itself; it shows the kind of record that moves inside the factor when the broader pressure is visible in license, ownership, inspection, or address-churn data.
Source dataset: output/licenses_hr.parquet, output/ownership_changes.parquet, output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, output/inspections.parquet.
Cost - 32 of 100
Cost feed is not present in output, so this brief uses the closest current public-record signal. The quarter's cost score is 32 of 100 because the proxy reads 5.8% standing closure-status load and 2.3% emergency-order rate in the one-year inspection window.
The named case to keep this concrete is CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL #2644 in Jacksonville, and PAUL'S BEACH BAR & GRILL in Islamorada. It does not prove the factor by itself; it shows the kind of record that moves inside the factor when the broader pressure is visible in license, ownership, inspection, or address-churn data.
Source dataset: output/licenses_hr.parquet, output/ownership_changes.parquet, output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, output/inspections.parquet.
Concept Saturation - 8 of 100
Concept Saturation feed is not present in output, so this brief uses the closest current public-record signal. The quarter's concept saturation score is 8 of 100 because the proxy reads 0 same-address churn locations, equal to 0.0% of the active license base.
The named case to keep this concrete is 860 NE 79 ST STE B in Miami (MET KITCHEN -> THE HEALTHY NEIGHBOR'S KITCHEN LLC -> BONE-NA-FIDE CATERING & GRILL SERVICES LLC -> COMMERCIAL KITCHEN 365). It does not prove the factor by itself; it shows the kind of record that moves inside the factor when the broader pressure is visible in license, ownership, inspection, or address-churn data.
Source dataset: output/licenses_hr.parquet, output/ownership_changes.parquet, output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, output/inspections.parquet.
Rent - 38 of 100
Rent feed is not present in output, so this brief uses the closest current public-record signal. The quarter's rent score is 38 of 100 because the proxy reads Fort Myers shows 9.1% city-level closure pressure in the pressure atlas.
The named case to keep this concrete is PATINELLA'S CHICKEN GRILL in Fort Myers, and WHISKEY CREEK STATION in Fort Myers. It does not prove the factor by itself; it shows the kind of record that moves inside the factor when the broader pressure is visible in license, ownership, inspection, or address-churn data.
Source dataset: output/licenses_hr.parquet, output/ownership_changes.parquet, output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, output/inspections.parquet.
Composite Read
The seven factors together describe a market that is still expanding on paper but carrying visible pressure in the spaces between openings. Regulatory pressure is the newest factor โ it reads the per-license ORSM anomaly score distribution directly rather than approximating through closure rates, which means it captures inspection-trajectory problems that haven't yet become status changes. Concept saturation and rent explain where addresses keep changing hands; cost and labor explain why existing operators show up in ownership-change and closure-status files; tourism and seasonality explain why the same statewide number feels different in Orlando, Miami, the Keys, Tampa Bay, and the Gulf Coast.
The practical read is not survival of the fittest. It is survival of the best-capitalized, best-located, least-confused operators in a market where 0 addresses have already shown multi-DBA churn and Atlantic Beach is carrying 55.8% neighborhood closure pressure.
Source dataset: all SPI proxy sources listed above.
SPI factor scores
| | | | |
|---|
| Regulatory Pressure |
16% |
39 of 100 |
4,437 of 101,174 ORSM-scored licenses in high/elevated bands (4.4%), emergency-order rate 2.3% |
SWEET BABY RAYS CHICKEN in Jacksonville, and TACO BELL #042908 in Miami |
| Labor |
14% |
31 of 100 |
371 ownership-change approvals in June 2026, equal to 0.6% of the active base |
GG'S OF NEW YORK in North Lauderdale, and TROPICAL SMOOTHIE CAFE in Neptune Beach |
| Tourism |
14% |
33 of 100 |
tourism-heavy metro monthly closure-status pressure peaked at 2.6% in the displayed metro set |
MAMA'S KITCHEN & CATERING in Goulds, and RINCON PORTENO in Miami |
| Seasonal Volatility |
14% |
0 of 100 |
0 quarter-to-date closure-status records through June 2026, versus 1,223 in the prior full quarter |
MAMA'S KITCHEN & CATERING in Goulds, and RINCON PORTENO in Miami |
| Cost |
14% |
32 of 100 |
5.8% standing closure-status load and 2.3% emergency-order rate in the one-year inspection window |
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL #2644 in Jacksonville, and PAUL'S BEACH BAR & GRILL in Islamorada |
| Concept Saturation |
14% |
8 of 100 |
0 same-address churn locations, equal to 0.0% of the active license base |
860 NE 79 ST STE B in Miami (MET KITCHEN -> THE HEALTHY NEIGHBOR'S KITCHEN LLC -> BONE-NA-FIDE CATERING & GRILL SERVICES LLC -> COMMERCIAL KITCHEN 365) |
| Rent |
14% |
38 of 100 |
Fort Myers shows 9.1% city-level closure pressure in the pressure atlas |
PATINELLA'S CHICKEN GRILL in Fort Myers, and WHISKEY CREEK STATION in Fort Myers |
Source dataset: SPI proxy inputs from public-record files.
Methodology
Methodology: SPI uses seven factor scores on a 0-100 scale. Regulatory pressure (16% weight) is fed by live Phase 2 ORSM baseline anomaly-score distribution. The other six factors (labor, tourism, seasonal volatility, cost, concept saturation, rent โ each 14% weight) use DBPR closure-status load, ownership-change filings, emergency-order rate, same-address churn pressure, and pressure-atlas city/neighborhood closure rates as transparent proxies until external data feeds land.