The six-month outlook is built on the Phase 2 ORSM baseline: 102,666 scored licenses distributed across four risk bands. 271 licenses score in the high-risk band (anomaly_score > 0.75), 3,703 in elevated (0.50–0.75), 13,475 in moderate (0.25–0.50), and 85,217 in low (< 0.25). But this edition is not a score table. The report reads the driver stack behind every named anomaly and explains why that license belongs on the desk's watch board.
The Phase 2 baseline is operator-tuned and explainable: severity_z, emergency-order counts, and ownership-change filings are not decorative fields. They are the factual spine of the editorial read — why the venue is abnormal, what kind of abnormality it is, and what the next reporting question should be.
TSE Anomaly Overlay
The TSE overlay adds signal-level anomaly context above the ORSM license baseline. These rows are current anomaly detections, not closure findings.
| TSE time-series anomaly | Bar (cuisine) | DBPR inspection severity-point activity per week, eligible cuisines | typical range | 24 of 100 | 2026-09-28 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Statewide | Shared-address restaurant cluster DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per month | typical range | 23 of 100 | 2026-09-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Florida-Keys (metro) | DBPR emergency-order and closure events per 10,000 accommodation and food-service jobs, per metro | typical range | 23 of 100 | 2026-09-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Tampa (city) | Foursquare-reported city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per week, eligible Florida cities | typical range | 23 of 100 | 2026-08-24 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Fast Food (cuisine) | Foursquare-reported cuisine DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per week, top 30 eligible cuisines | typical range | 22 of 100 | 2026-08-24 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Florida-Keys (metro) | DBPR emergency-order and closure events per 100,000 residents, per metro | typical range | 24 of 100 | 2026-08-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Statewide | Strip-mall restaurant DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per month (unit/suite address) | typical range | 24 of 100 | 2026-08-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | D7 (district) | Inspector activity per month, per district | typical range | 26 of 100 | 2026-07-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Opa-Locka (city) | Foursquare-reported city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per month, eligible Florida cities | typical range | 25 of 100 | 2026-07-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Diner (cuisine) | DBPR inspection severity-point activity per quarter, eligible cuisines | typical range | 23 of 100 | 2026-07-01 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Statewide | Shared-address restaurant cluster DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per week | typical range | 23 of 100 | 2026-05-25 |
| TSE time-series anomaly | Pinellas (county) | Foursquare-reported county DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate per week, eligible Florida counties | typical range | 24 of 100 | 2026-05-04 |
TSE Forecast Overlay
The forecast overlay shows signal-level trajectories beside the ORSM outlook. Forecast rows are model projections and remain separate from public-record facts.
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=jacksonville | -0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=miami | +0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=tampa | -0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=orlando | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=kissimmee | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=new port richey | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=oviedo | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=sarasota | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=doral | -0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=fort myers | -0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=opa-locka | -0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| city DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate weekly | city=tallahassee | -0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Scenario Rollup — Elevated/High Concentration by Metro
The metro rollup answers where regulatory pressure is concentrating. Miami carries the highest concentration of elevated/high-band licenses at 1.6%, which means the forward-look is more uncertain there than in metros with thinner high-band stacks.
This is not a closure count. It is an aggregate of per-license anomaly scores — the same scores that power the per-license table above — rolled up to metro geography. A high concentration here means the model sees more individual licenses behaving outside their own historical norm, which the editorial desk reads as a pressure signal.
Metro-level ORSM band concentration
| Miami | 5428 | 87 | 1.6% | 87 of 5428 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Fort Lauderdale | 2477 | 45 | 1.8% | 45 of 2477 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| West Palm Beach | 2106 | 29 | 1.4% | 29 of 2106 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Port St. Lucie | 864 | 7 | 0.8% | 7 of 864 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Key West | 254 | 6 | 2.4% | 6 of 254 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Tampa | 5697 | 71 | 1.2% | 71 of 5697 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Orlando | 7300 | 111 | 1.5% | 111 of 7300 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Jacksonville | 2621 | 51 | 1.9% | 51 of 2621 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Fort Myers | 3516 | 55 | 1.6% | 55 of 3516 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
| Tallahassee | 4080 | 78 | 1.9% | 78 of 4080 scored licenses in the elevated+ band |
Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.
NIM Forecast Scenario Rollup
The NV-Tesseract Forecast NIM produced 24 metro×target forecast pairs for this semiannual edition. Each pair compares the last observed value against the forecast-horizon endpoint, labeled as a directional trend rather than a point estimate.
south-florida · severity_sum: 2240.0 → 671.9, trend down 70.0% over the forecast horizon.
south-florida · eor_count: 2.0 → 2.6, trend up 31.6% over the forecast horizon.
south-florida · total_inspections: 212.0 → 69.0, trend down 67.5% over the forecast horizon.
tampa-bay · severity_sum: 700.0 → 269.1, trend down 61.6% over the forecast horizon.
tampa-bay · eor_count: 5.0 → 1.7, trend down 66.2% over the forecast horizon.
tampa-bay · total_inspections: 88.0 → 37.8, trend down 57.0% over the forecast horizon.
NIM forecast metro×target summary
| south-florida | severity_sum | 2240.0 | 671.9 | down 70.0% |
| south-florida | eor_count | 2.0 | 2.6 | up 31.6% |
| south-florida | total_inspections | 212.0 | 69.0 | down 67.5% |
| tampa-bay | severity_sum | 700.0 | 269.1 | down 61.6% |
| tampa-bay | eor_count | 5.0 | 1.7 | down 66.2% |
| tampa-bay | total_inspections | 88.0 | 37.8 | down 57.0% |
| orlando | severity_sum | 393.0 | 243.4 | down 38.1% |
| orlando | eor_count | 1.0 | 1.2 | up 23.4% |
| orlando | total_inspections | 45.0 | 27.8 | down 38.2% |
| jacksonville | severity_sum | 280.0 | 201.4 | down 28.1% |
| jacksonville | eor_count | 3.0 | 1.5 | down 49.2% |
| jacksonville | total_inspections | 26.0 | 17.4 | down 33.2% |
| florida-keys | severity_sum | 26.0 | 77.0 | up 196.2% |
| florida-keys | eor_count | 0.0 | 0.1 | new activity from a zero prior base |
| florida-keys | total_inspections | 5.0 | 9.9 | up 98.5% |
| treasure-coast | severity_sum | 102.0 | 32.6 | down 68.1% |
| treasure-coast | eor_count | 0.0 | 0.1 | new activity from a zero prior base |
| treasure-coast | total_inspections | 12.0 | 4.6 | down 61.9% |
| southwest-florida | severity_sum | 210.0 | 144.8 | down 31.0% |
| southwest-florida | eor_count | 0.0 | 0.4 | new activity from a zero prior base |
| southwest-florida | total_inspections | 35.0 | 22.5 | down 35.6% |
| north-florida | severity_sum | 59.0 | 81.2 | up 37.6% |
| north-florida | eor_count | 0.0 | 0.5 | new activity from a zero prior base |
| north-florida | total_inspections | 15.0 | 9.2 | down 38.7% |
Aggregate 90-day closure-pressure model
The model currently places 244 active licenses above the 50% analytical threshold. Top-decile precision is 28.1%. Named-business results are not published while identity, record completeness, threshold governance, evidence linking, and correction safeguards are under review.
High-Pressure Cities Ranking
Fort Myers leads the city pressure ranking with 95 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records against 1,140 active-at-start records, a 8.3% delinquency-pressure read. Delinquency is a public-record regulatory state, not by itself proof a business has closed. Named city records include TIJUANA FLATS BURRITO CO in Fort Myers, and SOUL BOWL ACAI in Fort Myers.
The city ranking is a pressure atlas, not a restaurant review. It tells the desk where DBPR license-delinquency concentration is dense enough to justify assignment work before the next six-month outlook.
Top 20 high-pressure cities
| 1 | Fort Myers | 1140 | 95 | 8.3% | 8.3% closure pressure; percentile 100.0 |
| 2 | Fort Lauderdale | 1097 | 89 | 8.1% | 8.1% closure pressure; percentile 97.9 |
| 3 | Tallahassee | 821 | 66 | 8.0% | 8.0% closure pressure; percentile 95.7 |
| 4 | Naples | 1103 | 83 | 7.5% | 7.5% closure pressure; percentile 93.6 |
| 5 | Oakland Park | 192 | 14 | 7.3% | 7.3% closure pressure; percentile 91.5 |
| 6 | Sebring | 141 | 10 | 7.1% | 7.1% closure pressure; percentile 89.4 |
| 7 | Orlando | 4504 | 315 | 7.0% | 7.0% closure pressure; percentile 87.2 |
| 8 | Miami | 4870 | 334 | 6.9% | 6.9% closure pressure; percentile 85.1 |
| 9 | Sunrise | 324 | 22 | 6.8% | 6.8% closure pressure; percentile 83.0 |
| 10 | Jacksonville | 2844 | 186 | 6.5% | 6.5% closure pressure; percentile 80.9 |
| 11 | Sarasota | 967 | 62 | 6.4% | 6.4% closure pressure; percentile 78.7 |
| 12 | Oviedo | 172 | 11 | 6.4% | 6.4% closure pressure; percentile 76.6 |
| 13 | Delray Beach | 382 | 24 | 6.3% | 6.3% closure pressure; percentile 74.5 |
| 14 | Key West | 393 | 24 | 6.1% | 6.1% closure pressure; percentile 72.3 |
| 15 | Miami Beach | 724 | 44 | 6.1% | 6.1% closure pressure; percentile 70.2 |
| 16 | Destin | 238 | 14 | 5.9% | 5.9% closure pressure; percentile 68.1 |
| 17 | Panama City | 292 | 17 | 5.8% | 5.8% closure pressure; percentile 66.0 |
| 18 | Davie | 246 | 14 | 5.7% | 5.7% closure pressure; percentile 63.8 |
| 19 | Coral Springs | 305 | 17 | 5.6% | 5.6% closure pressure; percentile 61.7 |
| 20 | Bradenton | 707 | 39 | 5.5% | 5.5% closure pressure; percentile 59.6 |
Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.
High-Attrition Neighborhoods
Atlantic Beach in Jacksonville leads the neighborhood pressure board with 24 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records against 43 active records, or 55.8%. Delinquency is a regulatory state, not confirmed closure. The dominant cuisine printed for that geography is Fast Food.
Neighborhoods are where the model starts to look less like a spreadsheet and more like a real-estate story.
Top 30 high-attrition neighborhoods
| 1 | Atlantic Beach | Jacksonville | 43 | 24 | 55.8% | Fast Food |
| 2 | Coral Springs | Coral Springs | 238 | 16 | 6.7% | Italian & Pizza |
| 3 | Davie | Davie | 182 | 11 | 6.0% | Japanese, Thai & Sushi |
| 4 | Sunrise | Sunrise | 192 | 11 | 5.7% | Italian & Pizza |
| 5 | Doral | Doral | 193 | 11 | 5.7% | Japanese, Thai & Sushi |
| 6 | Pembroke Pines | Pembroke Pines | 312 | 16 | 5.1% | Fast Food |
| 7 | Hialeah | Hialeah | 253 | 12 | 4.7% | Cuban |
Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.
Cuisine-Level Forecast
The cuisine forecast is blunt: cuisines above the statewide median DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate of 5.2% are treated as shrink candidates unless operator churn is low enough to argue for stability. Donuts, Sandwiches, Fast Food, Ice Cream, and Desserts sit near the top of the pressure board in the current atlas.
Pizza remains structurally important even when it is not the monthly rate leader because the address-churn file keeps pulling it back into the story.
Cuisine-level six-month forecast
| Sandwiches | projected shrink | 12.1% | 0.5% | 12.1% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.5% operator-churn rate |
| Fast Food | projected shrink | 10.4% | 0.2% | 10.4% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.2% operator-churn rate |
| Desserts | projected shrink | 8.7% | 0.7% | 8.7% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.7% operator-churn rate |
| Bagels | projected shrink | 6.7% | 0.0% | 6.7% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Sports Bar | projected shrink | 6.3% | 0.0% | 6.3% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Bakery | projected shrink | 5.6% | 1.0% | 5.6% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.0% operator-churn rate |
| Cafe | projected shrink | 5.3% | 0.3% | 5.3% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.3% operator-churn rate |
| Juice/Smoothie | projected growth/stability | 5.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Vietnamese | projected growth/stability | 5.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Deli | projected growth/stability | 4.9% | 0.0% | 4.9% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Health Food | projected growth/stability | 4.8% | 2.0% | 4.8% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 2.0% operator-churn rate |
| Diner | projected growth/stability | 4.3% | 0.4% | 4.3% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.4% operator-churn rate |
| Cocktail Bar | projected growth/stability | 4.3% | 0.0% | 4.3% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Caribbean | projected growth/stability | 4.2% | 0.0% | 4.2% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| Cuban | projected growth/stability | 4.1% | 1.1% | 4.1% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.1% operator-churn rate |
| Pub | projected growth/stability | 4.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.0% operator-churn rate |
| American | projected growth/stability | 3.8% | 1.6% | 3.8% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.6% operator-churn rate |
| Bar | projected growth/stability | 3.8% | 1.3% | 3.8% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 1.3% operator-churn rate |
| Italian & Pizza | projected growth/stability | 3.6% | 0.6% | 3.6% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.6% operator-churn rate |
| Seafood | projected growth/stability | 3.5% | 0.7% | 3.5% DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate and 0.7% operator-churn rate |
Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.
The 90-Day Watch List
Watch list pending — closure predictions not yet scored.
Six-Month Rear-View — Closed-Loop Model Validation
Of 1,121 licenses that moved to DBPR delinquent/inactive status (45 or 46) in the last six months, 0 currently score in the elevated or high ORSM band (0.0%). Delinquency is a public-record regulatory state, not by itself confirmation a business has closed. This is a rear-view validation: the same Phase 2 scoring that produces the forward-look above catches a material fraction of these delinquency events in its elevated+ bands. A higher catch rate means the model is surfacing real pre-delinquency signal; a lower rate tells the desk that delinquencies are dominantly structural (retirement, lease expiry, franchisor decisions) rather than inspection-pressure events — useful context for interpreting the forward-look.
No rear-view delinquency matches found — either no licenses went delinquent in the window or the model does not yet score delinquent licenses.
Editorial Verdict — Where to Look First
Most pressured metros: Key West, Jacksonville, Tallahassee lead the elevated/high-concentration board. The editorial desk should assign coverage resources to these geographies first — they carry the densest stacks of individual licenses behaving outside their own historical norms, which is the Phase 2 definition of elevated regulatory pressure.
Most pressured cuisine cohorts: Sandwiches, Fast Food, Desserts top the DBPR inactive/delinquent-license rate board. These are the cohorts where the forward-look is least certain — when a cuisine is already losing units at an above-median rate, the Phase 2 per-license signals in that cuisine carry higher editorial weight because the structural backdrop supports the per-license read.
Highest-pressure cities: Fort Myers, Fort Lauderdale, Tallahassee lead the statewide city ranking. The city pressure is a complement to the metro-level ORSM rollup — a city with high closure pressure AND a high ORSM elevated-band concentration is the strongest editorial signal in this brief.
Highest-attrition neighborhood: Atlantic Beach in Jacksonville with 24 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records against 43 active records (0.0%). Neighborhoods are where the model starts to look less like a spreadsheet and more like a real-estate story — the editorial desk should cross-reference the per-license table above against neighborhood-level delinquency to identify corridor-level patterns.
Methodology
Methodology: ORSM Phase 2 baseline produces per-license anomaly scores from operator-tuned weighted-max subscores (severity spike, cohort deviation, EOR history, ownership churn, license-expiry pressure, administrative distress, external closure signals). Bands: high (>0.75), elevated (0.50-0.75), moderate (0.25-0.50), low (<0.25). Scenario rollups aggregate band concentrations by metro county definitions. NIM forecast layer (NV-Tesseract) provides metro-level severity/EOR/inspection-volume projections when the forecast parquet is present. Closure predictions are Phase 3 logistic regression outputs, included here as complementary forward-look. All drivers are printed in plain English so the editorial desk can audit every call.
Data sources: Statistical risk modeling · ORSM Phase 2. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.