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Operator Risk Scoring Model Semiannual Brief

Six-month outlook for closure risk, hostile cities, and cuisine forecasts.

Florida restaurant outlook, next six months: 37 restaurants in the published top-risk file clear the 50% calibrated closure-probability line. Top-decile precision in the source metrics is 25.3%; these are research leads, not verdicts. The named edge starts with CUDJOE PIZZA, LLC in Summerland Key, CHUBBS KEYWEST in Key West, and KEY WEST TACO DOG in Key West.

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Updated 2026-05-22 15:03 UTC

By RiskyEats / FRI Editorial Desk

High-risk restaurants37
Prediction rows1,000
Top-decile precision25.3%
High-risk threshold12.1%
Cities ranked62

The six-month outlook begins with 37 restaurants above the 50% calibrated probability line in the published top-risk file. The model's own metrics put top-decile precision at 25.3%, with a high-risk training threshold of 12.1% and a 90-day forecast horizon.

That framing matters. LITTLE CAESARS #20671 in Ocoee, OASIS BEACH CLUB/MANGO MOON in Kissimmee, and FRENCH CAFE AT DEZERLAND in Orlando are research leads because their public-record profiles look like restaurants that closed in the training corpus. They are not verdicts, and they are not accusations.

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet and output/closure_predictor_metrics.json.

The 50 Highest-Risk Licenses

The top 50 is intentionally named. A probability without a restaurant name is too abstract to audit, and a restaurant name without drivers is too easy to misread. The lead cluster is heavy in days-since-inspection signals, county/cuisine baselines, and confidence bands wide enough to require human follow-up.

CUDJOE PIZZA, LLC in Summerland Key: 50.6% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 42.6% to 58.6%. Drivers: local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

CHUBBS KEYWEST in Key West: 50.6% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 42.6% to 58.6%. Drivers: local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

KEY WEST TACO DOG in Key West: 50.6% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 42.6% to 58.6%. Drivers: local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

WANDERING ROOSTER in Key West: 50.6% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 42.6% to 58.6%. Drivers: local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

CAYOS A LA CARTE in Islamorada: 50.6% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 42.6% to 58.6%. Drivers: local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet.

Top 50 highest-risk licenses

Open
CUDJOE PIZZA, LLC in Summerland Key Summerland Key Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% ›
CHUBBS KEYWEST in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% ›
KEY WEST TACO DOG in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% ›
WANDERING ROOSTER in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% ›
CAYOS A LA CARTE in Islamorada Islamorada Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% ›
TAKERIA LA PALAPA LLC in Marathon Marathon Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% ›
DJ'S ALL STAR SEAFOOD in Big Pine Key Big Pine Key Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% ›
PAPA JOES WATERFRONT in Islamorada Islamorada Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% ›
LA PINCHA KEY WEST in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% ›
JAMACIAN PUSH CART in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% ›
ASIAN LATIN FOOD in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% ›
FISHWIFE in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% ›
WOODY WAGON in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine 50.4% 42.4% to 58.4% ›
BEACHIN EATS in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.4% 42.4% to 58.4% ›
SCUBA SCOOPS in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.4% 42.4% to 58.4% ›
ROADSIDE GRILL LLC in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
OCEAN REEF PIZZA in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
LOCAL GRILLE in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
B AND G SPOT in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
A DINNER IN PARADISE in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
FRITTER FACTORY in Big Pine Key Big Pine Key Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
OCEAN REEF MEXICAN CANTINA in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
OCEAN REEF BBQ in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
CHUBBS KEY WEST in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
KEY WEST BLUE CRAB in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.3% 42.3% to 58.3% ›
MAESTRO DELLA PIZZA/STARBUCKS in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.2% 42.2% to 58.2% ›
OCEAN REEF PAN ASIAN in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.2% 42.2% to 58.2% ›
PINCHO BARGE in Tavernier Tavernier Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.2% 42.2% to 58.2% ›
LAZY DAYS RESTAURANT in Islamorada Islamorada Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.2% 42.2% to 58.2% ›
JOHNNY COCONUTS in Big Pine Key Big Pine Key Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.1% 42.1% to 58.1% ›
PRETZEL BAR in Marathon Marathon Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.1% 42.1% to 58.1% ›
SHUTTLE in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.1% 42.1% to 58.1% ›
ENDLESS SUMMER GRILL in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine 50.1% 42.1% to 58.1% ›
CD ANCHOR - KWGSL in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.1% 42.1% to 58.1% ›
EVOEX HOT-DOG in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.1% 42.1% to 58.1% ›
KEYS CONES in Big Pine Key Big Pine Key Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.0% 42.0% to 58.0% ›
TAQUERIA LA MEXICANA in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.0% 42.0% to 58.0% ›
OCEAN REEF RAW BAR in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 50.0% 42.0% to 58.0% ›
ROCK KEY CAFE in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 50.0% 42.0% to 58.0% ›
MARY JANE'S CLOSET in Cudjoe Key Cudjoe Key Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 49.9% 41.9% to 57.9% ›
KARMICHAELS CATERING in Marathon Marathon Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 49.9% 41.9% to 57.9% ›
ROOST in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 49.9% 41.9% to 57.9% ›
SEASIDE EATERY in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 49.9% 41.9% to 57.9% ›
DESTINATION CATERING & EVENTS 2 in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 49.8% 41.8% to 57.8% ›
DESSERTS BLISS in Key Largo Key Largo Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 49.8% 41.8% to 57.8% ›
ROOSTER TREATS in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 49.8% 41.8% to 57.8% ›
PARADISE SEAFOOD COFFEE SHOP in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 49.8% 41.8% to 57.8% ›
TAKERIA LA PALAPA in Marathon Marathon Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 49.8% 41.8% to 57.8% ›
LUMENE'S FOOD TRUCK in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median 49.8% 41.8% to 57.8% ›
SV ARGO NAVIS in Key West Key West Unclassified local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone 49.7% 41.7% to 57.7% ›

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet.

High-Pressure Cities Ranking

North Port leads the city pressure ranking with 15 closures against 91 active-at-start records, a 16.5% closure-pressure read. Named city records include SAVOR 100X35 #3 in North Port, and TACO STOP in North Port.

The city ranking is a pressure atlas, not a restaurant review. It tells the desk where closure concentration is dense enough to justify assignment work before the next six-month outlook.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, cities_ranked.

Top 20 high-pressure cities
1 North Port 91 15 16.5% 16.5% closure pressure; percentile 100.0
2 Fort Myers 1099 156 14.2% 14.2% closure pressure; percentile 98.4
3 Punta Gorda 148 17 11.5% 11.5% closure pressure; percentile 96.7
4 Miami 4773 516 10.8% 10.8% closure pressure; percentile 95.1
5 Sunrise 308 32 10.4% 10.4% closure pressure; percentile 93.4
6 Oakland Park 194 20 10.3% 10.3% closure pressure; percentile 91.8
7 Lehigh Acres 117 12 10.3% 10.3% closure pressure; percentile 90.2
8 Naples 1068 108 10.1% 10.1% closure pressure; percentile 88.5
9 Weston 115 11 9.6% 9.6% closure pressure; percentile 86.9
10 Sarasota 966 92 9.5% 9.5% closure pressure; percentile 85.2
11 Bradenton 662 63 9.5% 9.5% closure pressure; percentile 83.6
12 Fort Lauderdale 1085 102 9.4% 9.4% closure pressure; percentile 82.0
13 Jacksonville 2770 252 9.1% 9.1% closure pressure; percentile 80.3
14 North Fort Myers 172 15 8.7% 8.7% closure pressure; percentile 78.7
15 West Palm Beach 804 69 8.6% 8.6% closure pressure; percentile 77.0
16 Delray Beach 374 32 8.6% 8.6% closure pressure; percentile 75.4
17 Orlando 4270 365 8.5% 8.5% closure pressure; percentile 73.8
18 Sebring 129 11 8.5% 8.5% closure pressure; percentile 72.1
19 Coral Springs 309 26 8.4% 8.4% closure pressure; percentile 70.5
20 Miramar 192 15 7.8% 7.8% closure pressure; percentile 68.9

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json.

High-Attrition Neighborhoods

Atlantic Beach in Jacksonville leads the neighborhood pressure board with 24 closures against 43 active records, or 55.8%. The dominant cuisine printed for that geography is Fast Food.

Neighborhoods are where the model starts to look less like a spreadsheet and more like a real-estate story. A city can look manageable while one corridor, beach district, or shopping-center orbit keeps cycling through tenants.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, neighborhoods_ranked.

Top 30 high-attrition neighborhoods
1 Atlantic Beach Jacksonville 43 24 55.8% Fast Food
2 Pinellas Park Clearwater 33 11 33.3% Fast Food
3 Aventura Miami 62 11 17.7% Chicken
4 Coral Springs Coral Springs 226 22 9.7% Fast Food
5 Sunrise Sunrise 183 17 9.3% Fast Food
6 Miramar Miramar 126 10 7.9% Fast Food
7 Hialeah Hialeah 241 19 7.9% Cuban
8 Doral Doral 193 15 7.8% Sushi
9 Davie Davie 175 12 6.9% Fast Food
10 Pembroke Pines Pembroke Pines 306 20 6.5% Pizza
11 Hollywood Hollywood 282 14 5.0% Pizza

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json.

Cuisine-Level Forecast

The cuisine forecast is blunt: cuisines above the statewide median closure rate of 6.9% are treated as shrink candidates unless operator churn is low enough to argue for stability. Donuts, Sandwiches, Fast Food, Ice Cream, and Desserts sit near the top of the pressure board in the current atlas, which means the issue is not only one-off failures; it is repeated stress inside familiar formats.

Pizza remains structurally important even when it is not the monthly rate leader because the address-churn file keeps pulling it back into the story. A market can absorb a failed pizza shop, but 171 pizza supertransition addresses statewide says the format is also a real-estate recycling lane.

Growth and stability are easier to defend where closure rate and operator churn both sit below the statewide pressure line. The table below keeps the classification mechanical: closure rate first, operator churn second, then a plain-English reason so a reader can challenge the call.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json and output/closure_predictions.parquet.

Cuisine-level six-month forecast
Donuts projected shrink 40.1% 3.2% 40.1% closure rate and 3.2% operator-churn rate
Sandwiches projected shrink 13.3% 3.6% 13.3% closure rate and 3.6% operator-churn rate
Fast Food projected shrink 10.6% 5.5% 10.6% closure rate and 5.5% operator-churn rate
Desserts projected shrink 9.7% 6.8% 9.7% closure rate and 6.8% operator-churn rate
Ice Cream projected shrink 9.4% 3.6% 9.4% closure rate and 3.6% operator-churn rate
Lounge projected shrink 9.4% 11.6% 9.4% closure rate and 11.6% operator-churn rate
Bakery projected shrink 9.1% 6.2% 9.1% closure rate and 6.2% operator-churn rate
Juice/Smoothie projected shrink 9.0% 2.9% 9.0% closure rate and 2.9% operator-churn rate
Jamaican projected shrink 8.4% 9.9% 8.4% closure rate and 9.9% operator-churn rate
Burgers projected shrink 8.4% 4.9% 8.4% closure rate and 4.9% operator-churn rate
Burritos projected shrink 8.2% 2.8% 8.2% closure rate and 2.8% operator-churn rate
Event Catering projected shrink 8.1% 15.2% 8.1% closure rate and 15.2% operator-churn rate
Pub projected shrink 7.5% 6.9% 7.5% closure rate and 6.9% operator-churn rate
Cafe projected shrink 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% closure rate and 6.8% operator-churn rate
American projected growth/stability 6.7% 12.4% 6.7% closure rate and 12.4% operator-churn rate
Sports Bar projected growth/stability 6.7% 4.3% 6.7% closure rate and 4.3% operator-churn rate
Food Truck projected growth/stability 6.7% 19.7% 6.7% closure rate and 19.7% operator-churn rate
Cocktail Bar projected growth/stability 6.5% 8.6% 6.5% closure rate and 8.6% operator-churn rate
Brunch projected growth/stability 6.3% 6.2% 6.3% closure rate and 6.2% operator-churn rate
Latin American projected growth/stability 6.3% 13.2% 6.3% closure rate and 13.2% operator-churn rate

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json.

The 90-Day Watch List

The 90-day watch list uses the same calibrated closure file but lowers the narrative aperture to restaurants at or above 30% probability. In the current published file, the top 15 displayed rows all clear that line, so the useful distinction is not whether they clear threshold; it is which drivers put them there.

CUDJOE PIZZA, LLC in Summerland Key: 50.6% probability; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

CHUBBS KEYWEST in Key West: 50.6% probability; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

KEY WEST TACO DOG in Key West: 50.6% probability; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

WANDERING ROOSTER in Key West: 50.6% probability; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

CAYOS A LA CARTE in Islamorada: 50.6% probability; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median.

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet.

90-day watch list

Open
CUDJOE PIZZA, LLC in Summerland Key Summerland Key Monroe Unclassified 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median ›
CHUBBS KEYWEST in Key West Key West Monroe Unclassified 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median ›
KEY WEST TACO DOG in Key West Key West Monroe Unclassified 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median ›
WANDERING ROOSTER in Key West Key West Monroe Unclassified 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median ›
CAYOS A LA CARTE in Islamorada Islamorada Monroe Unclassified 50.6% 42.6% to 58.6% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median ›
TAKERIA LA PALAPA LLC in Marathon Marathon Monroe Unclassified 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone ›
DJ'S ALL STAR SEAFOOD in Big Pine Key Big Pine Key Monroe Unclassified 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone ›
PAPA JOES WATERFRONT in Islamorada Islamorada Monroe Unclassified 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone ›
LA PINCHA KEY WEST in Key West Key West Monroe Unclassified 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone ›
JAMACIAN PUSH CART in Key West Key West Monroe Unclassified 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone ›
ASIAN LATIN FOOD in Key West Key West Monroe Unclassified 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone ›
FISHWIFE in Key West Key West Monroe Unclassified 50.5% 42.5% to 58.5% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone ›
WOODY WAGON in Key West Key West Monroe Unclassified 50.4% 42.4% to 58.4% local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine ›
BEACHIN EATS in Key West Key West Monroe Unclassified 50.4% 42.4% to 58.4% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median ›
SCUBA SCOOPS in Key Largo Key Largo Monroe Unclassified 50.4% 42.4% to 58.4% local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median ›

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet.

Methodology

Methodology: ORSM combines calibrated closure probabilities, license status, inspection timing, cuisine and county baselines, confidence bands, pressure-atlas city/neighborhood rankings, and cuisine-level closure/churn rates. Probabilities are 90-day model outputs from output/closure_predictions.parquet; model-quality metrics come from output/closure_predictor_metrics.json.

Data sources: Statistical risk modeling. Built from DBPR public inspection records, Florida Sunbiz business filings, and Foursquare/OSS location data. All counts are derived from public records — no estimates or projections unless labeled as forecast.