Operator Risk Scoring Model Semiannual Brief

TSE Anomaly Overlay

The TSE overlay adds signal-level anomaly context above the ORSM license baseline. These rows are current anomaly detections, not closure findings.

Source dataset: output/tse_anomalies.parquet via tse_overlay.get_anomalies_for_signal().

TSE Forecast Overlay

The forecast overlay shows signal-level trajectories beside the ORSM outlook. Forecast rows are model projections and remain separate from public-record facts.

Source dataset: output/tse_forecasts.parquet via tse_overlay.get_forecast_for_signal().

ORSM Narrative Report — Why These Venues Are Anomalous

The top 50 licenses are presented as report copy, not a scoreboard. The lead cluster is heavy in inspection severity records, but each item below is written from its own driver stack: top_driver, severity_z, eor_730d_count, ownership_changes_730d, closure/status flags, and last-inspection context.

SWEET BABY RAYS CHICKEN in Jacksonville

SWEET BABY RAYS CHICKEN in Jacksonville is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Jacksonville Food Truck record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-03-26. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.7 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

TACO BELL #042908 in Miami

TACO BELL #042908 in Miami is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Miami Fast Food record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-03-02. The severity read is elevated, about 1.1 standard deviations above its comparison set, enough to keep the license in the file. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

YARDIE JAMAICAN CUISINE in Jacksonville

YARDIE JAMAICAN CUISINE in Jacksonville is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Jacksonville Jamaican record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-21. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.4 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

COACH'S BAR AND GRILL VENICE in Venice

COACH'S BAR AND GRILL VENICE in Venice is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Venice Bar record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-15. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.4 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

FRITANGA SAZON NICA in Miami

FRITANGA SAZON NICA in Miami is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Miami Latin American record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-03-19. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 2.9 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

HOOKED ISLAND GRILL in Cape Coral

HOOKED ISLAND GRILL in Cape Coral is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Cape Coral Seafood record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-06-01. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 5.4 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

SUPREME BEANS BY SEATED TOGETHER in South Daytona

SUPREME BEANS BY SEATED TOGETHER in South Daytona is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the South Daytona Unclassified record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-02-23. The severity read is elevated, about 2.0 standard deviations above its comparison set, enough to keep the license in the file. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

BAMBUU ASIAN EATERY in Orlando

BAMBUU ASIAN EATERY in Orlando is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Orlando Asian record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-03-16. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 4.8 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

PISCO EXPRESS CARROLLWOOD in Tampa

PISCO EXPRESS CARROLLWOOD in Tampa is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Tampa Unclassified record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-22. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.2 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

EL COLISEO in Miami

EL COLISEO in Miami is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Miami Mexican record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-03-04. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.3 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

TOAST CAFE in Fruitland Park

TOAST CAFE in Fruitland Park is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Fruitland Park Diner record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-09. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 3.0 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

ILUNIES DOCKSIDE SPORTS GRILL in Palmetto

ILUNIES DOCKSIDE SPORTS GRILL in Palmetto is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Palmetto Sports Bar record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2025-12-22. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 4.5 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

JAMAICA KITCHEN in Miami

JAMAICA KITCHEN in Miami is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Miami Jamaican record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2025-11-17. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.4 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

HAWKERS ASIAN STREET FARE in Windermere

HAWKERS ASIAN STREET FARE in Windermere is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Windermere Asian record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2025-09-11. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.6 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

NEW YORK BAGELS & COFFEE in Oviedo

NEW YORK BAGELS & COFFEE in Oviedo is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Oviedo Unclassified record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-06. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.2 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

SUSHI KAMI ENDLESS JAPANESE FUSION in Bradenton

SUSHI KAMI ENDLESS JAPANESE FUSION in Bradenton is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Bradenton Japanese, Thai & Sushi record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-14. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 4.2 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

HANGRY JOE'S HOT CHICKEN & WINGS in Orlando

HANGRY JOE'S HOT CHICKEN & WINGS in Orlando is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Orlando Chicken record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-06-15. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.7 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

CABO BREEZE MEXICAN GRILL AND TIKI BAR in Venice

CABO BREEZE MEXICAN GRILL AND TIKI BAR in Venice is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Venice Mexican record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-19. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.3 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

HARDEES in Weeki Wachee

HARDEES in Weeki Wachee is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Weeki Wachee Burgers record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-14. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.3 standard deviations above the cohort. The emergency-order file adds weight, with 2 emergency-order dispositions in the last two years — the kind of repeat enforcement history that turns a bad week into a pattern. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

SUSHI ROCK & GRILL in Altamonte Springs

SUSHI ROCK & GRILL in Altamonte Springs is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Altamonte Springs Japanese, Thai & Sushi record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-21. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.3 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

TAQUERIA in Parrish

TAQUERIA in Parrish is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Parrish unclassified food service record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2019-06-26. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.1 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

CRABBY JOE'S DECK AND GRILL in Daytona Beach Shores

CRABBY JOE'S DECK AND GRILL in Daytona Beach Shores is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Daytona Beach Shores Seafood record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-15. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.4 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

HIBACHI OMAKASE 2 INC in Orlando

HIBACHI OMAKASE 2 INC in Orlando is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Orlando Caribbean record keeps pointing toward external closure signal. The primary driver is Foursquare flagged permanently closed, with the last inspection posted as 2026-03-02. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 2.0 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a verification case: the public web is carrying closure signals that need to be reconciled against the state license record.

SAKURA BUFFET in Deland

SAKURA BUFFET in Deland is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Deland Unclassified record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-21. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.5 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

M'S THAI SPORTS BAR in Panama City

M'S THAI SPORTS BAR in Panama City is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Panama City unclassified food service record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-21. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 2.9 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

CAFE SHALOM LATIN FOOD in Fort Walton Beach

CAFE SHALOM LATIN FOOD in Fort Walton Beach is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Fort Walton Beach unclassified food service record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-27. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.3 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

RIO GRANDE CHURRASCARIA in Hollywood

RIO GRANDE CHURRASCARIA in Hollywood is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Hollywood Unclassified record keeps pointing toward external closure signal. The primary driver is Foursquare flagged permanently closed, with the last inspection posted as 2026-06-15. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 2.1 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a verification case: the public web is carrying closure signals that need to be reconciled against the state license record.

TJF 234 LLC in Melbourne

TJF 234 LLC in Melbourne is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Melbourne Unclassified record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-20. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 2.9 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

CHOW TIME GRILL AND BUFFET in Tamarac

CHOW TIME GRILL AND BUFFET in Tamarac is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Tamarac Unclassified record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-19. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.5 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

FIREHOUSE SUBS #1010 in Lakeland

FIREHOUSE SUBS #1010 in Lakeland is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Lakeland Sandwiches record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-03-30. Severity is only mildly above the peer line at 0.3 standard deviations, so the anomaly is coming from the surrounding record rather than one explosive inspection. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

CITY SIDE LOUNGE in Tampa

CITY SIDE LOUNGE in Tampa is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Tampa Bar record keeps pointing toward external closure signal. The primary driver is Foursquare flagged permanently closed, with the last inspection posted as 2025-07-29. Inspection severity is not the main heat source here; the anomaly comes from administrative, closure, or churn signals around the license. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a verification case: the public web is carrying closure signals that need to be reconciled against the state license record.

BOB'S DINER in Orlando

BOB'S DINER in Orlando is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Orlando Unclassified record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-02-03. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 5.2 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

LATITUDES WATERFRONT GRILL AND OYSTER BAR in Cocoa

LATITUDES WATERFRONT GRILL AND OYSTER BAR in Cocoa is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Cocoa Diner record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-20. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 4.1 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

TACOS PADRISIMO in Kissimmee

TACOS PADRISIMO in Kissimmee is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Kissimmee Unclassified record keeps pointing toward external closure signal. The primary driver is Foursquare flagged permanently closed, with the last inspection posted as 2025-09-12. Inspection severity is not the main heat source here; the anomaly comes from administrative, closure, or churn signals around the license. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. A single ownership-change filing in the same 730-day window matters because it puts operational churn next to the regulatory signal. That makes this a verification case: the public web is carrying closure signals that need to be reconciled against the state license record.

VILLAVANA CAFETERIA in Hialeah

VILLAVANA CAFETERIA in Hialeah is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Hialeah Cafe record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-13. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 2.7 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

MR AND MRS BUN in Miami

MR AND MRS BUN in Miami is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Miami Peruvian record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-30. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 3.0 standard deviations above comparable licenses. The emergency-order file adds weight, with 2 emergency-order dispositions in the last two years — the kind of repeat enforcement history that turns a bad week into a pattern. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

CLARION INN HOTEL in Pensacola

CLARION INN HOTEL in Pensacola is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Pensacola unclassified food service record keeps pointing toward inspection severity. The primary driver is inspection severity well above peer cuisines, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-07. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.0 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a callback-watch case: the question is whether the next inspection cools the spike or confirms that the kitchen has drifted out of its normal operating range.

GYPSEA CREPES in Panama City Beach

GYPSEA CREPES in Panama City Beach is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Panama City Beach unclassified food service record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-02-03. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 2.8 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

VANIGLIA E CIOCCOLATO INC in Pembroke Pines

VANIGLIA E CIOCCOLATO INC in Pembroke Pines is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Pembroke Pines Unclassified record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-02-17. Severity is only mildly above the peer line at 0.6 standard deviations, so the anomaly is coming from the surrounding record rather than one explosive inspection. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

ISLAND VYBZ FUSION GRILL 2 LLC in Lauderdale Lakes

ISLAND VYBZ FUSION GRILL 2 LLC in Lauderdale Lakes is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Lauderdale Lakes Unclassified record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2025-11-05. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 4.1 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

SUNDREAM in Fort Lauderdale

SUNDREAM in Fort Lauderdale is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Fort Lauderdale Unclassified record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-04-08. Inspection severity is not the main heat source here; the anomaly comes from administrative, closure, or churn signals around the license. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

CEDAR RIVER SEAFOOD OF CRYSTAL RIVER in Crystal River

CEDAR RIVER SEAFOOD OF CRYSTAL RIVER in Crystal River is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Crystal River Seafood record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-01. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 3.0 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

KENTUCKY FRIED CHICKEN in Hialeah

KENTUCKY FRIED CHICKEN in Hialeah is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Hialeah Chicken record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-01-14. Severity is only mildly above the peer line at 0.7 standard deviations, so the anomaly is coming from the surrounding record rather than one explosive inspection. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

TRIBUTE TO TOBACCO ROAD BY KUSH in Miami

TRIBUTE TO TOBACCO ROAD BY KUSH in Miami is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Miami Unclassified record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-05-11. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.5 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

MAESTRO DELLA PIZZA E / SAM ADAMS BREWHOUSE. in Miami

MAESTRO DELLA PIZZA E / SAM ADAMS BREWHOUSE. in Miami is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Miami Italian & Pizza record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2025-11-18. The severity read is elevated, about 1.6 standard deviations above its comparison set, enough to keep the license in the file. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

EZ MEALS 2 GO INC in Homestead

EZ MEALS 2 GO INC in Homestead is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Homestead Unclassified record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-03-30. Inspection severity is not the main heat source here; the anomaly comes from administrative, closure, or churn signals around the license. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

SUVICHE in Miami

SUVICHE in Miami is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Miami Japanese, Thai & Sushi record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-06-05. Its inspection-severity profile is far outside the local peer lane at 3.2 standard deviations above the cohort. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

SONIC DRIVE IN in Miami Gardens

SONIC DRIVE IN in Miami Gardens is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Miami Gardens Fast Food record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-06-15. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 2.9 standard deviations above comparable licenses. One emergency-order disposition sits inside the two-year window, giving the record a harder edge than ordinary violation volume. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

CACAO EXPRESS in Doral

CACAO EXPRESS in Doral is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Doral Unclassified record keeps pointing toward severity spike vs self. The primary driver is severity spike vs self, with the last inspection posted as 2026-01-09. The inspection record is not routine: severity is running 2.2 standard deviations above comparable licenses. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a stacked-signal case: no single number should be overread, but the combined public record is too uneven to ignore.

GOLDEN GLORY SEAFOOD in Jacksonville

GOLDEN GLORY SEAFOOD in Jacksonville is not anomalous because ORSM printed a high label; it is anomalous because the Jacksonville unclassified food service record keeps pointing toward external closure signal. The primary driver is Foursquare flagged permanently closed, with the last inspection posted as 2024-01-04. Inspection severity is not the main heat source here; the anomaly comes from administrative, closure, or churn signals around the license. There is no recent emergency-order stack in the 730-day window, which keeps this from reading as a pure shutdown-history case. The ownership file is quiet, so the read stays focused on the inspection, status, and closure-signal side of the ledger. That makes this a verification case: the public web is carrying closure signals that need to be reconciled against the state license record.

Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet joined to output/master_business.parquet and output/inspections.parquet.

ORSM anomaly driver ledger behind the narrative reports

This ledger is for auditability only. The narrative report above is the published read; the table keeps the driver fields visible so the desk can verify that each paragraph is grounded in the underlying ORSM record.

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet.

Scenario Rollup — Elevated/High Concentration by Metro

The metro rollup answers where regulatory pressure is concentrating. Miami carries the highest concentration of elevated/high-band licenses at 3.9%, which means the forward-look is more uncertain there than in metros with thinner high-band stacks.

This is not a closure count. It is an aggregate of per-license anomaly scores — the same scores that power the per-license table above — rolled up to metro geography. A high concentration here means the model sees more individual licenses behaving outside their own historical norm, which the editorial desk reads as a pressure signal.

Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet grouped by metro county definitions.

Metro-level ORSM band concentration

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet.

NIM Forecast Scenario Rollup

The NV-Tesseract Forecast NIM produced 24 metro×target forecast pairs for this semiannual edition. Each pair compares the last observed value against the forecast-horizon endpoint, labeled as a directional trend rather than a point estimate.

south-florida · severity_sum: 795.0 → 2400.6, trend up 202.0% over the forecast horizon.

south-florida · eor_count: 4.0 → 7.5, trend up 88.1% over the forecast horizon.

south-florida · total_inspections: 84.0 → 281.7, trend up 235.3% over the forecast horizon.

tampa-bay · severity_sum: 91.0 → 978.6, trend up 975.4% over the forecast horizon.

tampa-bay · eor_count: 0.0 → 4.9, trend new activity from a zero prior base over the forecast horizon.

tampa-bay · total_inspections: 31.0 → 129.0, trend up 316.0% over the forecast horizon.

Source dataset: output/orsm_nim_forecast_results.parquet. Model: NV-Tesseract Forecast NIM on CERBERUS:8003.

NIM forecast metro×target summary

Source dataset: output/orsm_nim_forecast_results.parquet.

The 50 Highest-Risk Licenses (Closure Predictor)

The closure predictor (Phase 3) flags 17 restaurants above the 50% calibrated probability line. Top-decile precision is 31.7%. These are research leads, not verdicts.

DUNKIN DONUTS in North Palm Beach: 69.7% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 61.7% to 77.7%. Drivers: days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Donuts; County Palm Beach.

PANDA EXPRESS APOLLO BEACH in Apollo Beach: 62.4% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 54.4% to 70.4%. Drivers: days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Fast Food; County Hillsborough.

RAISING CANE'S RESTAURANT #1342 in Kissimmee: 60.6% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 52.6% to 68.6%. Drivers: days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Fast Food; County Osceola.

JERSEY MIKE'S SUB SHOP in Wesley Chapel: 59.3% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 51.3% to 67.3%. Drivers: days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Sandwiches; County Pasco.

HAAGEN DAZS OCALA in Ocala: 55.1% calibrated 90-day probability, with a confidence band of 47.1% to 63.1%. Drivers: days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; County Marion; Cuisine Ice Cream.

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet.

Top 50 highest-risk licenses (closure predictor)

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet.

High-Pressure Cities Ranking

Fort Myers leads the city pressure ranking with 106 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records against 1,164 active-at-start records, a 9.1% delinquency-pressure read. Delinquency is a public-record regulatory state, not by itself proof a business has closed. Named city records include PATINELLA'S CHICKEN GRILL in Fort Myers, and WHISKEY CREEK STATION in Fort Myers.

The city ranking is a pressure atlas, not a restaurant review. It tells the desk where DBPR license-delinquency concentration is dense enough to justify assignment work before the next six-month outlook.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, cities_ranked.

Top 20 high-pressure cities

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json.

High-Attrition Neighborhoods

Atlantic Beach in Jacksonville leads the neighborhood pressure board with 24 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records against 43 active records, or 55.8%. Delinquency is a regulatory state, not confirmed closure. The dominant cuisine printed for that geography is Fast Food.

Neighborhoods are where the model starts to look less like a spreadsheet and more like a real-estate story.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, neighborhoods_ranked.

Top 30 high-attrition neighborhoods

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json.

Cuisine-Level Forecast

The cuisine forecast is blunt: cuisines above the statewide median closure rate of 5.3% are treated as shrink candidates unless operator churn is low enough to argue for stability. Donuts, Sandwiches, Fast Food, Ice Cream, and Desserts sit near the top of the pressure board in the current atlas.

Pizza remains structurally important even when it is not the monthly rate leader because the address-churn file keeps pulling it back into the story.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json and output/closure_predictions.parquet.

Cuisine-level six-month forecast

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json.

The 90-Day Watch List

The 90-day watch list uses the calibrated closure file at or above 30% probability. The top 15 displayed rows all clear that line; the useful distinction is which drivers put them there.

DUNKIN DONUTS in North Palm Beach: 69.7% probability; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Donuts; County Palm Beach.

PANDA EXPRESS APOLLO BEACH in Apollo Beach: 62.4% probability; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Fast Food; County Hillsborough.

RAISING CANE'S RESTAURANT #1342 in Kissimmee: 60.6% probability; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Fast Food; County Osceola.

JERSEY MIKE'S SUB SHOP in Wesley Chapel: 59.3% probability; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; Cuisine Sandwiches; County Pasco.

HAAGEN DAZS OCALA in Ocala: 55.1% probability; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; County Marion; Cuisine Ice Cream.

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet.

90-day watch list

Raw counts mislead -- Putnam County losing 4 places is different from Miami losing 4. Use the rate or per-capita column for defensible comparisons. Methodology details linked above.

Source dataset: output/closure_predictions.parquet.

Six-Month Rear-View — Closed-Loop Model Validation

Of 2,071 licenses that moved to DBPR delinquent/inactive status (45 or 46) in the last six months, 0 currently score in the elevated or high ORSM band (0.0%). Delinquency is a public-record regulatory state, not by itself confirmation a business has closed. This is a rear-view validation: the same Phase 2 scoring that produces the forward-look above catches a material fraction of these delinquency events in its elevated+ bands. A higher catch rate means the model is surfacing real pre-delinquency signal; a lower rate tells the desk that delinquencies are dominantly structural (retirement, lease expiry, franchisor decisions) rather than inspection-pressure events — useful context for interpreting the forward-look.

No rear-view delinquency matches found — either no licenses went delinquent in the window or the model does not yet score delinquent licenses.

Source dataset: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet joined to output/licenses_hr.parquet delinquent-status (45/46) records.

Editorial Verdict — Where to Look First

Most pressured metros: Jacksonville, Key West, West Palm Beach lead the elevated/high-concentration board. The editorial desk should assign coverage resources to these geographies first — they carry the densest stacks of individual licenses behaving outside their own historical norms, which is the Phase 2 definition of elevated regulatory pressure.

Most pressured cuisine cohorts: Sandwiches, Desserts, Fast Food top the closure-rate board. These are the cohorts where the forward-look is least certain — when a cuisine is already losing units at an above-median rate, the Phase 2 per-license signals in that cuisine carry higher editorial weight because the structural backdrop supports the per-license read.

Highest-pressure cities: Fort Myers, Fort Lauderdale, Oakland Park lead the statewide city ranking. The city pressure is a complement to the metro-level ORSM rollup — a city with high closure pressure AND a high ORSM elevated-band concentration is the strongest editorial signal in this brief.

Highest-attrition neighborhood: Atlantic Beach in Jacksonville with 24 DBPR delinquent/inactive (status 45/46) license records against 43 active records (0.0%). Neighborhoods are where the model starts to look less like a spreadsheet and more like a real-estate story — the editorial desk should cross-reference the per-license table above against neighborhood-level delinquency to identify corridor-level patterns.

Source datasets: output/orsm_baseline_scores.parquet, output/hostility_atlas_full-corpus.json, output/closure_predictions.parquet.

Methodology

Methodology: ORSM Phase 2 baseline produces per-license anomaly scores from operator-tuned weighted-max subscores (severity spike, cohort deviation, EOR history, ownership churn, license-expiry pressure, administrative distress, external closure signals). Bands: high (>0.75), elevated (0.50-0.75), moderate (0.25-0.50), low (<0.25). Scenario rollups aggregate band concentrations by metro county definitions. NIM forecast layer (NV-Tesseract on CERBERUS:8003) provides metro-level severity/EOR/inspection-volume projections when the forecast parquet is present. Closure predictions are Phase 3 logistic regression outputs, included here as complementary forward-look. All drivers are printed in plain English so the editorial desk can audit every call.