At-Risk Closure Predictions

What this is / what this is not. RiskyEats is not saying these restaurants will close. The table is a deterministic ranking of currently-active licenses whose calibrated public-record probability is above the publishing threshold. Each row includes the drivers that caused the flag and links back to the homepage card when present.

Publishable high-risk rows583

Holdout AUC0.733

Calibration error0.031

Top-decile precision25.3%

Top 100 highest-probability active licenses

Restaurant	Address	Cuisine	Calibrated probability	Top 3 drivers	Last inspection
CUDJOE PIZZA, LLCSEA5453358	24356 OVERSEAS HIGHWAYSummerland Key, Monroe	Unclassified	50.6%42.6% to 58.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2024-09-18
CHUBBS KEYWESTSEA5453359	800 OLIVIA STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.6%42.6% to 58.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2024-09-18
KEY WEST TACO DOGSEA5453362	425 SOUTHARD STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.6%42.6% to 58.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2024-10-23
WANDERING ROOSTERSEA5453383	513 GREENE STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.6%42.6% to 58.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-06-24
CAYOS A LA CARTESEA5402855	79786 OVERSEAS HWYIslamorada, Monroe	Unclassified	50.6%42.6% to 58.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-10-30
TAKERIA LA PALAPA LLCSEA5453395	4250 OVERSEAS HWYMarathon, Monroe	Unclassified	50.5%42.5% to 58.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-01-08
DJ'S ALL STAR SEAFOODSEA5453396	29740 OVERSEAS HWYBig Pine Key, Monroe	Unclassified	50.5%42.5% to 58.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-01-14
PAPA JOES WATERFRONTSEA5453398	79786 OVERSEAS HWYIslamorada, Monroe	Unclassified	50.5%42.5% to 58.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-01-22
LA PINCHA KEY WESTSEA5453399	101 FITZPATRICK STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.5%42.5% to 58.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-02-11
JAMACIAN PUSH CARTSEA5453400	410 WALL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.5%42.5% to 58.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-02-24
ASIAN LATIN FOODSEA5453402	2106 N ROOSEVELT BLVDKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.5%42.5% to 58.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-04-15
FISHWIFESEA5428517	223 PETRONIA STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.5%42.5% to 58.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-04-28
WOODY WAGONSEA5453154	408 WHITE STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.4%42.4% to 58.4%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2021-01-27
BEACHIN EATSSEA5453340	7005 SHRIMP ROADKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.4%42.4% to 58.4%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-06-26
SCUBA SCOOPSSEA5453384	102700 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	50.4%42.4% to 58.4%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-10-24
ROADSIDE GRILL LLCSEA5453377	6150 2 ST UNIT 3Key West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-09-16
OCEAN REEF PIZZASEA5453324	35 OCEAN REEF DR STE 200Key Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-09-19
LOCAL GRILLESEA5402852	500 DUVAL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-07-15
B AND G SPOTSEA5453354	81 E 2 STKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-08-08
A DINNER IN PARADISESEA5453325	28 SE MARLIN AVEKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-11-19
FRITTER FACTORYSEA5453328	33000 OVERSEAS HIGHWAYBig Pine Key, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-04-22
OCEAN REEF MEXICAN CANTINASEA5453320	35 OCEAN REEF DR STE 200Key Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-12-17
OCEAN REEF BBQSEA5453323	35 OCEAN REEF DR STE 200Key Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-12-17
CHUBBS KEY WESTSEA5453360	800 OLIVIA STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-06-17
KEY WEST BLUE CRABSEA5453381	3124 OVERSEAS HIGHWAYKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.3%42.3% to 58.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-03-24
MAESTRO DELLA PIZZA/STARBUCKSSEA5428507	3495 S ROOSEVELT BLVDKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.2%42.2% to 58.2%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-09-16
OCEAN REEF PAN ASIANSEA5453322	35 OCEAN REEF DR STE 200Key Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	50.2%42.2% to 58.2%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-12-17
PINCHO BARGESEA5453256	90775 OLD HWYTavernier, Monroe	Unclassified	50.2%42.2% to 58.2%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-11-19
LAZY DAYS RESTAURANTSEA5453275	79867 OVERSEAS HWYIslamorada, Monroe	Unclassified	50.2%42.2% to 58.2%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-10-15
JOHNNY COCONUTSSEA5453335	30250 OVERSEAS HWYBig Pine Key, Monroe	Unclassified	50.1%42.1% to 58.1%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-11-13
PRETZEL BARSEA5453374	2603 OVERSEAS HWYMarathon, Monroe	Unclassified	50.1%42.1% to 58.1%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-12-05
SHUTTLESEA5453338	1124 KEY PLAZAKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.1%42.1% to 58.1%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-06-17
ENDLESS SUMMER GRILLSEA5453227	529 UNITED STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.1%42.1% to 58.1%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2021-05-11
CD ANCHOR - KWGSLSEA5428449	3112 NORTHSIDE DRKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.1%42.1% to 58.1%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-02-03
EVOEX HOT-DOGSEA5453363	2510 N ROOSEVELT BLVDKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.1%42.1% to 58.1%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-06-17
KEYS CONESSEA5453343	30200 OVERSEAS HWYBig Pine Key, Monroe	Unclassified	50.0%42.0% to 58.0%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-01-28
TAQUERIA LA MEXICANASEA5453352	633 DUVAL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.0%42.0% to 58.0%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-10-28
OCEAN REEF RAW BARSEA5453321	35 OCEAN REEF DR STE 200Key Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	50.0%42.0% to 58.0%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-12-11
ROCK KEY CAFESEA5453345	111 OVERSEAS HWY #102Key West, Monroe	Unclassified	50.0%42.0% to 58.0%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-09-17
MARY JANE'S CLOSETSEA5428465	22864 OVERSEAS HWYCudjoe Key, Monroe	Unclassified	49.9%41.9% to 57.9%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-10-14
KARMICHAELS CATERINGSEA5453232	3520 OVERSEAS HWYMarathon, Monroe	Unclassified	49.9%41.9% to 57.9%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-08-14
ROOSTSEA5402849	420 APPELROUTH LNKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.9%41.9% to 57.9%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-08-13
SEASIDE EATERYSEA5453261	98275 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.9%41.9% to 57.9%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-12-19
DESTINATION CATERING & EVENTS 2SEA5453331	111 EATON STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.8%41.8% to 57.8%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-11-18
DESSERTS BLISSSEA5453241	35 OCEAN REEF DR STE 200Key Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.8%41.8% to 57.8%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-09-19
ROOSTER TREATSSEA5453283	1325 SIMONTON STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.8%41.8% to 57.8%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-07-22
PARADISE SEAFOOD COFFEE SHOPSEA5453245	5710 US HWY 1Key West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.8%41.8% to 57.8%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-06-10
TAKERIA LA PALAPASEA5453314	4250 OVERSEAS HWYMarathon , Monroe	Unclassified	49.8%41.8% to 57.8%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-01-05
LUMENE'S FOOD TRUCKSEA5453304	3316 N ROOSEVELT BLVDKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.8%41.8% to 57.8%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-06-17
SV ARGO NAVISSEA5428499	0 DUVAL SLIP 6Key West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.7%41.7% to 57.7%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-02-24
KEY WEST HOT DOGSSEA5453267	410 WALL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.7%41.7% to 57.7%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-06-10
MERCADO MORADASEA5453393	84001 OVERSEAS HWYIslamorada, Monroe	Unclassified	49.7%41.7% to 57.7%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-04-23
GET AWAY CAFESEA5453342	87395 OLD HWY 1Islamorada, Monroe	Unclassified	49.7%41.7% to 57.7%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-07-30
PINCHO BARGESEA5453209	805 BLUE HERON LANEKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.7%41.7% to 57.7%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-05-06
ONE GRINDSEA5453248	36 EAST 2 STREETKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.7%41.7% to 57.7%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2026-04-29
OCEAN REEF REDLAND FARMSEA5453339	35 OCEAN REEF DR STE 200Key Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.7%41.7% to 57.7%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-12-17
DANI AND MIKE'S 102SEA5453394	102700 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.6%41.6% to 57.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-11-12
PAPA JOE'S WATERFRONTSEA5453376	79786 OVERSEAS HWYIslamorada, Monroe	Unclassified	49.6%41.6% to 57.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2025-12-12
KEY LIME FOOD TRUCK 2SEA5453301	1111 EATON STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.6%41.6% to 57.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-11-12
CHUBBS KEY WESTSEA5453313	800 OLIVIA STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.6%41.6% to 57.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-06-17
CD ANCHORSEA5453246	815 SIGSBEE RD BLDG V4111Key West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.6%41.6% to 57.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-09-17
DIRTY DOGSSEA5453280	1421 FIRST STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.6%41.6% to 57.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-08-27
LUCKY TWISTSEA5428498	84001 OVERSEAS HWYIslamorada, Monroe	Unclassified	49.6%41.6% to 57.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-07-30
SANDBAR DONUTSSEA5453252	102840 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.6%41.6% to 57.6%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-07-18
EVOEX LPSEA5453333	2510 N ROOSEVELT BLVDKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.5%41.5% to 57.5%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2025-06-17
C-D ANCHORSEA5453237	815 SIGSBEE RD BLDG V4111Key West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.5%41.5% to 57.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2026-03-03
LOAFING AROUND CAFESEA5453288	17001 OVERSEAS HWYSugar Loaf Key, Monroe	Unclassified	49.5%41.5% to 57.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-11-07
FRITAS CUBAN BURGER CAFESEA5428477	419 SOUTHARD STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.5%41.5% to 57.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-03-11
KEY WEST PERSONAL CHEF/ LOST KITCHENSEA5402846	6810 FRONT ST UNIT BKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.5%41.5% to 57.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-09-17
RC BISTROSEA5428430	1 RESIDENCE LNKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.5%41.5% to 57.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2026-04-20
A MOVABLE FEAST BAKEHOUSE AND PROVISIONSSEA5402854	99246 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.5%41.5% to 57.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-08-26
CHUBBS KEY WESTSEA5453311	800 OLIVIA STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.5%41.5% to 57.5%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2025-06-17
CAYO HUESO COMPANY INCSEA5402847	601 HOWARD ENGLAND WAYKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.5%41.5% to 57.5%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-09-16
KEY LARGO CONCH HOUSESEA5453173	100211 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.4%41.4% to 57.4%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2025-10-27
UCE CAFE LLCSEA5453357	934 TRUMAN AVEKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.4%41.4% to 57.4%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-09-17
PRESTIGE FOOD TRUCK 2SEA5453372	5168 OVERSEAS HWYKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.4%41.4% to 57.4%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2025-02-12
550 VENTURESSEA5453392	98990 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.3%41.3% to 57.3%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2025-10-16
DANI&MIKE'S 102SEA5453348	102700 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.3%41.3% to 57.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-02-11
A MOVABLE FEASTSEA5453206	81573 OLD HWYIslamorada, Monroe	Unclassified	49.3%41.3% to 57.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2026-01-15
MACDOOBBQSEA5453308	5 GEIGER RD.Key West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.3%41.3% to 57.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-03-03
FL KEYS FOOD SERVICES LLCSEA5453401	1400 OVERSEAS HWYMarathon, Monroe	Unclassified	49.3%41.3% to 57.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-03-17
FARM2AIRSEA5428504	3495 S ROOSEVELT BLVDKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.3%41.3% to 57.3%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2025-09-16
CHAMES TACOSSEA5453388	90154 OVERSEAS HWYTavernier, Monroe	Unclassified	49.3%41.3% to 57.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; is top50 kill zone	2026-01-15
COURTNEYS PLACE HISTORIC COTTAGES & INNSSEA5428230	720 WHITMARSH LNKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.3%41.3% to 57.3%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2025-08-27
YANKEE FREEDOM IIISEA5428227	100 GRINNELL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.2%41.2% to 57.2%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median	2025-05-06
HOME OF KEY WEST ORIGINAL CONCH FRITTERSSEA5450199	9 RIVIERA DRKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.2%41.2% to 57.2%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2025-06-10
TAKERIA LA PALAPASEA5453226	4250 OVERSEAS HWYMarathon, Monroe	Unclassified	49.2%41.2% to 57.2%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2026-01-05
KEY LARGO CONCH HOUSESEA5453191	100211 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.2%41.2% to 57.2%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2025-10-27
KING SEAFOOD LLCSEA5453355	10925 OVERSEAS HWYMarathon, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; is top50 kill zone	2025-09-30
BIG BITE BURGERSSEA5453387	12240 OVERSEAS HWYMarathon, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; is top50 kill zone; Cuisine County supertransition rate	2025-12-17
SUPER DOGSSEA5450132	408 WHITE STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2025-06-17
HOT DOG LOUNGESEA5453131	301 DUVAL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2025-06-17
BABY'S COFFEESEA5453234	3180 OVERSEAS HWYKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2026-03-31
WICKED GOODSEA5453318	1480 OVERSEAS HWYMarathon, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2025-10-31
LA SINCERITE DELICIOUS FOOD.SEA5453265	6631 MALONEY AVENUE FRNTKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; is top50 kill zone	2025-09-17
VINO'S ON DUVALSEA5428440	810 DUVAL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2025-07-22
LAZY LOBSTER RESTAURANTSEA5453279	102770 OVERSEAS HWYKey Largo, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; inspection severity z vs cuisine	2025-08-15
BOBBYS BALLS, INCSEA5401913	828 DUVAL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.1%41.1% to 57.1%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2025-07-22
CLEMENTES WOOD FIRED TROLLEY PIZZERIASEA5453176	629 DUVAL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.0%41.0% to 57.0%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2025-06-17
MILAGRO RESTAURANT AND BARSEA5453223	821 DUVAL STKey West, Monroe	Unclassified	49.0%41.0% to 57.0%	local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine; license age days	2025-09-24

Metro views

Restaurant	Address	Cuisine	Calibrated probability	Top 3 drivers
ROUX KREWE LLCSEA2348468	391 E 4TH AVE 5Hialeah, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
JUICE BAR MARANEROSSEA2348484	1605 BIARRITZ DRIVEMiami Beach, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
H&E GASTRONOMIC LLCSEA2348481	5535 W. 10 CTHialeah, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
SABOR TROPICAL Y MASSEA2348482	12401 W OKEECHOBEE RD LOT 324Hialeah Gardens, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
DAVE & BUSTER'S #028 MIAMI 0015441SEA2324207	11481 NW 12 STMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
AVI @ AMAZON-MIA2SEA2324208	14250 AVIATION DRMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
TORTUGA ISLAND SPICESEA2348474	20235 NE 13 CTMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
AVI @ AMAZON-MIA5SEA2324213	1900 NY 132ND PLMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
MY EXOTIC FRUITSEA2348479	23205 SW 217 AVENUEHomestead, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
BOBAYO TEA HOUSESEA2348483	2605 NW 11 AVEMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
TU OBLEA COLOMBIANASEA2348492	2810 NE 201 ST. TARRACI APT 321Miami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
DILLY DEESEA2348491	102 SW 6TH AVEMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
SUGAR RUSHSEA2348506	2608 NW 72 AVEMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
WAKAMOLLISEA2348503	11295 BISCAYNE BLVD APT 807Miami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
BURGER TRAPSEA2348500	16983 SW 292 STHomestead, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
TIAGO'S TACOSSEA2348507	15771 SW 90TH TERMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
JESEDSEA2348489	3251 NW 15 STMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
ITAKI ACAI BOWLSSEA2348485	19701 NE 13TH COURTMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
ROCCOS DOUGHSEA2348511	6545 INDIAN CREEK DRMiami Beach, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
WILL'S GRILLSEA2348499	13787 SW 114 TERMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
MODERN PIZZA / ELEPHANT EARSEA2348512	12555 BISCAYNE BLVD 923 UNITMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
TASTY TABLES BY MERCYSEA2348555	7746 W 34 LNHialeah, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
HSA HOSPITALS-NORTH SHORE MED CTRSEA2324215	1100 NW 95 STMiami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
REALLY GREAT FOOD HOUSESEA2348520	6620 W 2ND COURTHialeah, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade
FAIRY FLOSSSEA2348660	9970 N KENDALL DRV APT 909Miami, Dade	Unclassified	42.1%34.1% to 50.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Dade

Restaurant	Address	Cuisine	Calibrated probability	Top 3 drivers
PARADISE TASTING CUISINESEA5830929	7441 COVINA CTOrlando, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SWEET SHIBASEA5830924	1875 WALKER AVEWinter Park, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
OUT BACKSEA5830923	2321 LAUREL BLOSSOM CIROcoee, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
FRESH EATSSEA5830932	1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PLOrlando, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
LINDA'S HOT DOGS AND MORESEA5830928	2264 WAUTOMA PLOrlando, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 40 FLAVORS FROM FIRESEA5830979	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
STREETCOR SNACKSSEA5831100	1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PLOrlando, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
GRAN AREPASEA5831076	11954 MARCOOSEE RDOrlando, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
COKE IRONSEA5831077	1000 UNIVERSAL STUDIOS PLOrlando, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 21 FLAVORS OF AMERICASEA5830957	1510 N AVENUE OF THE STARSLake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 10 AUSTRALIASEA5830972	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 18 GERMANYSEA5830954	1510 N AVENUE OF THE STARSLake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SASA'S EMPANADAS + MORESEA5830999	1443 KASLO CIRCLE NWOrlando, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE R MILLED AND MULLEDSEA5830977	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 23 GREECESEA5830981	1510 N AVENUE OF THE STARSLake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 25 BRAZILSEA5830955	1510 N AVENUE OF THE STARSLake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 24 BELGIUMSEA5830956	1510 N AVENUE OF THE STARSLake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 39 GYOZASSEA5830988	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
GOLD MEATSEA5830998	938 BLACKTHORN DRApopka, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 3 BRAMBLEWOOD BITESSEA5830971	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 30 CANADASEA5830968	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
EARTH EATSSEA5830980	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 8 HAWAIISEA5830970	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 19 SPAINSEA5830978	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange
SITE 38 COASTAL EATSSEA5830973	PO BOX 10000Lake Buena Vista, Orange	Unclassified	41.1%33.1% to 49.1%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Orange

Restaurant	Address	Cuisine	Calibrated probability	Top 3 drivers
TYRONEMALL02SEA6200155	6901 22 AVE NSt.Petersburg, Pinellas	Unclassified	40.4%32.4% to 48.4%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
SZCLEARWATERSEA6200162	13000 66TH STREET NLargo, Pinellas	Unclassified	40.4%32.4% to 48.4%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
FRESH FRUIT FRESLESEA6218076	420 MAIN STDunedin, Pinellas	Unclassified	40.4%32.4% to 48.4%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
CLARION INN & SUITESSEA6200160	20967 US HWY 19 NClearwater, Pinellas	Unclassified	40.4%32.4% to 48.4%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
BAYFRONT HEALTH CENTER-72403SEA6200164	701 6 ST SSt. Petersburg, Pinellas	Unclassified	40.4%32.4% to 48.4%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
CLEARWATER - OLD BUILDING 0015191SEA6200158	249 WINDWARD PASSAGEClearwater, Pinellas	Unclassified	40.4%32.4% to 48.4%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
TYRONEMALL03SEA6200156	6901 22 AVE NSt.Petersburg, Pinellas	Unclassified	40.4%32.4% to 48.4%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
GASPARILLA PIRATE FEST 2026SEA3926335	BAYSHORE BLVDTampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
EVENT HOSPITALITY SOLUTIONSSEA3926334	4201 N DALE MABRYTampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
CIAOFTAMPASEA3900303	6404 E COLUMBUS DRTampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
AMBI-OD TASTE THE FRESHNESS LLCSEA3926162	8585 MONTRARIL CIRCLE 814, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
OG SAUSAGESEA3926853	12903 WATERVIEW WAYRiverview, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
PINEAPPLE HALESEA3926864	2508 W OAK STPlant City, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
JAYS PREMIUM JERKYSEA3926858	2508 W OAK STPlant City, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
3D SMART VENDINGSEA3900316	4310 W SPRUCE STTampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
CRACKED COCONUTSEA3926189	1208 E KENNEDY BLVDTampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
SOFLO THROW DOWNSEA3926204	600 N. ASHLEY DR.Tampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
MADZ CHILBOGANSEA3926203	602 ASHLEY DRIVETampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
ZHENG HAOSEA3926199	600 N. ASHLEY DRTampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
BASIL AND ROSEMARY BAKERYSEA3926163	4017 VALRICO GROVE DRValrico, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
APOLLO BEACH VENDING COMPANYSEA3900315	3097 S KINGSWAY RDSeffner, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
COZY TEA LOFTSEA3926774	4800 US 301Tampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
MITCHELL SQUAD COFFEE LLCSEA3900311	514 N FRANKLIN ST STE 207Tampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
LA COCINA DE MI TIERRASEA3926852	13345 CASEY RDTampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough
BAY TO BAY VENDINGSEA3900314	300 W TYLER STTampa, Hillsborough	Unclassified	39.0%31.0% to 47.0%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Hillsborough

Restaurant	Address	Cuisine	Calibrated probability	Top 3 drivers
CAMBODIA FOODSEA6501743	205 CEZANNE CIRCLEPonte Vedra, St. Johns	Unclassified	39.6%31.6% to 47.6%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
SA MESASEA6501700	126 SALAZAR STSaint Augustine, St. Johns	Unclassified	39.6%31.6% to 47.6%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
STAUGOUTLETS05SEA6501536	2700 STATE ROAD 16Saint Augustine, St. Johns	Unclassified	39.6%31.6% to 47.6%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
SWEET TREATSSEA6501690	6336 SALADO RDSaint Augustine, St. Johns	Unclassified	39.6%31.6% to 47.6%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
FLORIDA PIEROGI COMPANYSEA6501725	148 MOULTRIE VILLAGE LNSaint Augustine, St. Johns	Unclassified	39.6%31.6% to 47.6%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine
UPTOWN ARTISANSEA6501719	11 ROHDE AVESaint Augustine, St. Johns	Unclassified	39.6%31.6% to 47.6%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; inspection severity z vs cuisine

Restaurant	Address	Cuisine	Calibrated probability	Top 3 drivers
EVOLVENDING - EVOLVEBREAKFASTSEA4605345	11000 TERMINAL ACCESS RDFort Myers, Lee	Unclassified	40.5%32.5% to 48.5%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Lee
SPORTS CHALLENGE AMERICASEA4605347	28120 RACE TRACK ROAD Bonita Springs, Lee	Unclassified	40.5%32.5% to 48.5%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Lee
RO + CO BBQSEA4603695	9201 COCKLESHELL DR.Bonita Springs, Lee	Unclassified	40.5%32.5% to 48.5%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Lee
QUIERO MA'S TACOSSEA4603686	11831 BAYSHORE ROADN Fort Myers, Lee	Unclassified	40.5%32.5% to 48.5%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Lee
4TH DAY ICE CREAMSEA4603687	11831 BAYSHORE ROADNorth Fort Myers, Lee	Unclassified	40.5%32.5% to 48.5%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Lee
DAVE & BUSTER'S #136 FT. MYERS 0015448SEA4605341	13499 S CLEVELAND AVE STE 400Fort Myers, Lee	Unclassified	40.5%32.5% to 48.5%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Lee
PEPSI CART - SUMMERTIME CONCESSIONSSEA4603696	14100 6 MILE CYPRESSFort Myers, Lee	Unclassified	40.5%32.5% to 48.5%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Lee
DOCS BBQSEA4651751	11770 METRO PKWY UNIT AFort Myers, Lee	Unclassified	40.5%32.5% to 48.5%	days since last inspection vs Cuisine median; local market saturation per 10k; County Lee

Methodology

Model: LogisticRegression with class_weight='balanced', wrapped in CalibratedClassifierCV sigmoid calibration. Training rows are 90-day historical snapshots from 2014-2024 with a stratified calibrated holdout; 2025 is reserved for drift review. Features are inspection trajectory, license timing, ownership churn, Sunbiz status, cuisine-county closure pressure, kill-zone membership, and local saturation. Source data is DBPR public records plus RiskyEats enrichment files. Known limitation: historical Sunbiz status is not available for every snapshot, so the model treats missing historical status conservatively.

Holdout false-positive rate at 50% probability: 0.0%. Probabilities are calibrated estimates, not raw model scores; forecast intervals are approximate and widen when the data is sparse.

Per-Restaurant Closure Risk

Top 100 highest-probability active licenses

Metro views

Methodology